The Green Bay Packers will go to Minneapolis on Sunday afternoon with what Packer Nation considers to be a do or die game.but, here’s the reality: the Packers are going to make the playoffs in some capacity because the NFC is so weak. The Falcons (6-3) are the only other team over .500 in the NFC that is not winning its division. Green Bay is up two games over six other 4-5 teams, which is a lot in the NFL this late in the season. Whether it be winning the division like everyone expected them to or going under the radar as a wild card team, they will be there. They’re too good not to be and the rest of the pack is not very good.
So what’s the issue? Aaron Rodgers clearly is not 100% healthy, Eddie Lacy is not the same running back, the team is without one of its three best players in Jordy Nelson, and Clay Matthews is literally doing it all on defense because the team did not address the inside linebacker position in the offseason. The pass rush has sucked lately and special teams have been mediocre at best. There are problems, but I think fans need to R-E-L-A-X again. The expectations are so high for them that it’s putting even more pressure on them to perform. The less pressure they feel, the better right now. It’s been a long three weeks for the Pack.
And guess what? I think they march into that college stadium in Minnesota and pull out one of the most memorable wins in the McCarthy-Rodgers era.
Click here for this week’s NFL power rankings.
Reflection on Week 10
After my worst week since Week 3, I have a good feeling about my picks this week. Per usual, I will be evaluating my picks from the previous week utilizing completions (good advice), interceptions (wrong advice), and incompletions (irrelevant advice).
Week 1: 16-15-5
Week 2: 11-16-9
Week 3: 13-14-9
Week 4: 19-13-4
Week 5: 19-10-7
Week 6: 17-13-6
Week 7: 18-13-5
Week 8: 14-14-8
Week 9: 17-12-7
Week 10: 15-16-5
Total: 159-136-65
| Completions |
|
Incompletions |
| Russell Wilson (START) | Jay Cutler (SIT) | Michael Crabtree (START) |
| Blake Bortles (START) | Carson Palmer (BUST) | Ted Ginn, Jr. (SIT) |
| Kirk Cousins (SLEEPER) | Darren McFadden (START) | Eagles D/ST (START) |
| Marcus Mariota (SIT) | Joique Bell (SLEEPER) | Delanie Walker (START) |
| Chris Johnson (SIT) | Charcandrick West (SIT) | Giovani Bernard (START) |
| Eric Decker (START) | LeSean McCoy (BUST) | |
| Jamison Crowder (SLEEPER) | Larry Fitzgerald (BUST) | |
| Jeremy Maclin (SIT) | Eric Ebron (SLEEPER) | |
| Jordan Reed (START) | Richard Rodgers (SIT) | |
| Vernon Davis (SIT) | Mason Crosby (START) | |
| Benjamin Watson (BUST) | Cairo Santos (SIT) | |
| Steven Hauschka (START) | Robbie Gould (SIT) | |
| Josh Brown (SLEEPER) | Chandler Catanzaro (BUST) | |
| Steelers D/ST (START) | Packers D/ST (SLEEPER) | |
| Cardinals D/ST (BUST) | Dolphins D/ST (SIT) | |
| Vikings D/ST (BUST) |
Week 11 Start/Sit
Note: All fantasy point references come from ESPN Standard leagues.
Click here for this week’s fantasy football rankings.
Quarterbacks
Start
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
There’s no doubt that the Bengals are tough against quarterbacks (third best in points allowed), but Palmer proved on Sunday night in Seattle that he doesn’t care who the competition or the situation is. Palmer has scored at least 16 points in every week this season, so you’re starting him.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (vs. Oakland Raiders)
The Raiders held Teddy Bridgewater in check fantasy-wise last week and Peyton Manning in Week 5, but they’ve given up 17 or more points in every other contest. Stafford’s at home, and he’s going to be confident coming off that win at Green Bay.
Sleeper: Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (@ Jacksonville Jaguars)
The Jaguars simply struggle against the pass, and Mariota may be able to use his legs a little bit this week on Thursday Night Football. Expect Mariota to throw a few touchdowns and maybe even run for one.
Sit
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (vs. St. Louis Rams)
I believe the Rams’ performance last week against Jay Cutler and the Bears was a fluke, considering St. Louis had only given up 10+ points to an opposing quarterback at home once all season. Flacco has not been elite this season and does not have many players to throw to, so I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting him.
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (@ Carolina Panthers)
Coming off a strong performance against New Orleans last week, Cousins and the Redskins now head to Carolina to take on the undefeated Panthers. Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback that has really done considerable damage to the Panthers, so I would avoid Cousins this week against Josh Norman and company.
Bust Alert: Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (@ Arizona Cardinals)
Arizona has held opposing quarterbacks in check at home, and Dalton’s confidence may have taken a huge hit against Houston. His offensive weapons may struggle against the strong Arizona secondary, and he’s sort of a risky start this week.
Running Backs
Start
Charcandrick West, Kansas City Chiefs (@ San Diego Chargers)
West blew away fantasy owners last week with his monster performance. Now, he gets to head to San Diego to play the worst team against opposing running backs.
LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots (vs. Buffalo Bills)
The Patriots struggled to run the ball on Buffalo in their Week 2 win, but I believe this team will need to utilize Blount more now with both Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman hurt. Tom Brady is still going to throw the ball a lot, but I see Blount getting a few more carries this week, and he’s been very solid.
Sleeper: Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos (@ Chicago Bears)
Hillman was the lead back last week and found the end zone. He now gets to take on an improved, but still weak defense in Chicago with a new quarterback under center. I see Hillman getting 15-20 carries and a touchdown with Brock Osweiler playing and Emmanuel Sanders’ status in question.
Sit
Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals (@ Arizona Cardinals)
The Cardinals have a very strong run defense, especially at home. More importantly, Hill has been so inconsistent this year that he’s basically a touchdown or bust player. I can’t trust him in this matchup, especially with Giovani Bernard’s better production.
Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers (@ Minnesota Vikings)
Lacy will likely play on Sunday as the #2 back behind James Starks. I think he will get carries based on what I’ve heard, but I wouldn’t trust him until we understand his role in the backfield. He’s touchdown or bust this week, and the Vikings have only given up four rushing touchdowns to running backs all season.
Bust Alert: Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ Philadelphia Eagles)
Martin was red hot to start the season, but he’s taken a seat back in the stagnant and injured Buccaneers offense. He’ll face off against the Eagles run defense that has only given up one touchdown to opposing running backs all season.
Wide Receivers
Start
Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills (@ New England Patriots)
Malcolm Butler and Odell Beckham, Jr. went at it last Sunday, but I see Watkins taking advantage of this matchup more than ODB. Watkins is a different kind of receiver, and he’s played well all season (when healthy) no matter who was guarding him. The Patriots have also given up the fifth most points to opposing receivers.
Stevie Johnson, San Diego Chargers (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
Who else is Philip Rivers going to throw the ball to besides Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead? Johnson is the clear #1 receiver right now with injuries to Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd, and he’s worth a start this week against the second worst team against opposing wide receivers.
Sleeper: Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots (vs. Buffalo Bills)
A lot of people will be talking about Danny Amendola this week to fill in for Julian Edelman, which is completely accurate. But, what about LaFell? Wouldn’t this be the week he finally has a huge game with all of the attention on Amendola and Gronkowski?
Sit
Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins (@ Carolina Panthers)
DeSean Jackson is back, Jordan Reed is the #1 target for Kirk Cousins, and rookie Jamison Crowder has also emerged as one of Cousins’ go-to guys. This all spells trouble for Garcon, who will also have to matchup against Josh Norman and the Panthers’ stingy secondary.
John Brown, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Brown is in somebody’s dog house, considering he has done next to nothing in recent weeks. The Bengals also have a strong secondary, and I think the other Brown, Jaron Brown, may be seeing some more playing time after his clutch performance on Monday night. Keep an eye on Michael Floyd’s injury as well for John Brown’s potential.
Bust Alert: Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears (vs. Denver Broncos)
Aqib Talib returns from his one game suspension on Sunday, and he will definitely be guarding Jeffery. I’m not saying Talib will completely stop him, but it’s going to be hard for Jay Cutler to fit the ball into Jeffery’s hands than usual against Talib.
Tight Ends
Start
Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (@ Miami Dolphins)
Witten gets Tony Romo back, and you can finally trust him again.
Richard Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (@ Minnesota Vikings)
Aaron Rodgers is running out of healthy targets, so this Rodgers should continue to see production.
Sleeper: Scott Chandler, New England Patriots (vs. Buffalo Bills)
Tom Brady is without Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, so offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is bound to incorporate Chandler against his former team.
Sit
Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks (vs. San Francisco 49ers)
I’m not sure if you have somebody better to start, but Graham has been brutal to fantasy owners this season. The 49ers have only given up three touchdowns to opposing tight ends, which doesn’t make this any better.
Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts (@ Atlanta Falcons)
Fleener is always a favorite target of Andrew Luck, not Matt Hasselbeck, despite the Falcons’ six touchdowns to opposing tight ends.
Bust Alert: Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals (@ Arizona Cardinals)
The Cardinals have only given up more than 10+ points to an opposing tight end(s) all season, and it was against the impenetrable Gary Barnidge.
Kickers
Start
Matt Bryant, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
Cairo Santos, Kansas City Chiefs (@ San Diego Chargers)
Sleeper: Sebastian Janikowski, Oakland Raiders (@ Detroit Lions)
Sit
Mike Nugent, Cincinnati Bengals (@ Arizona Cardinals)
Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis Colts (@ Atlanta Falcons)
Bust Alert: Mason Crosby, Green Bay Packers (@ Minnesota Vikings)
Defenses/Special Teams
Start
Denver Broncos D/ST (@ Chicago Bears)
New York Jets D/ST (@ Houston Texans)
Sleeper: Atlanta Falcons (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
Sit
Cincinnati Bengals D/ST (@ Arizona Cardinals)
Minnesota Vikings D/ST (vs. Green Bay Packers)
Bust Alert: Buffalo Bills D/ST (@ New England Patriots)
Week 11 Predictions
It has been a brutal couple of weeks in terms of picks for everyone out there, not just myself. This week, there are a lot of tossup games (four games without lines). So many teams need wins this week to stay in their respective division or wild card playoff races, and I have a feeling Week 11 will be an important marker for the Seahawks, Colts, Jets, Bills, and, of course, Packers and Vikings.
Week 1: 10-6
Week 2: 7-9
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 8-7
Week 5: 7-7
Week 6: 10-4
Week 7: 9-5
Week 8: 8-6
Week 9: 5-8
Week 10: 6-8
Overall: 80-66 (55%)
Week 11 Score Predictions
Tennessee Titans 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 22 (Jaguars -2.5)
Oakland Raiders 31, Detroit Lions 27 (Raiders -1.0)
Indianapolis Colts 20, Atlanta Falcons 24 (Falcons -5.5)
St. Louis Rams 13, Baltimore Ravens 10 (Rams +1.0)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Eagles -5.5)
Denver Broncos 21, Chicago Bears 17 (EVEN)
New York Jets 24, Houston Texans 14 (EVEN)
Washington Redskins 13, Carolina Panthers 28 (Panthers -8.5)
Dallas Cowboys 23, Miami Dolphins 20 (EVEN)
Kansas City Chiefs 17, San Diego Chargers 20 (Chargers +3.0)
Green Bay Packers 25, Minnesota Vikings 24 (EVEN)
San Francisco 49ers 10, Seattle Seahawks 27 (Seahawks -13.5)
Cincinnati Bengals 20, Arizona Cardinals 28 (Cardinals -5.0)
Buffalo Bills 23, New England Patriots 27 (Patriots -7.5)
Sources: Yahoo! Fantasy, ESPN Fantasy, Rotowire
Image: Stafford