San Diego Chargers (2-3) @ Green Bay Packers (5-0)
Sunday 10/18/15, 3:25pm
Series: 9-1
Line: Packers by 10
Philip Rivers and Co. travel to Lambeau on Sunday for another exciting showdown. The reeling Chargers are coming off a heartbreaking last-second loss in primetime to the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers. Meanwhile, a win for the Packers would mean heading into the bye week with a comfortable 6-0 record. Time to boogie.
Quick hits: San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are another somewhat enigmatic opponent for the Packers this week. They needed a big second-half comeback to beat the Lions at home in week one, which seemed impressive until the Lions lost their next four games. They needed a last-second field goal to beat the Browns at home in week four. They hung tough with the undefeated Bengals on the road, but followed that up by getting smoked by the Vikings in Minnesota. Combine that with the Steelers loss, and the Chargers are a little hard to pin down.
Nobody really questions that the Chargers are capable of playing much better than they have thus far this season, but it remains to be seen whether they will or not. Rivers is a fighter and never someone you want to count out, but injuries along the offensive line haven’t allowed the offense to get into much of a rhythm. Combine that with one of the worst run defenses in the league, and it’s easier to understand why they’ve struggled so far.
Still, this is a team that beat the Seahawks in Seattle last year and fell one game short of making the playoffs in the AFC. And this is the NFL, where anything can happen. So even though the Packers are once again heavy favorites, as always, it’s healthy to look at some of the key matchups that will play a big part in what goes down on Sunday.
Can Rivers outduel Rodgers in Lambeau?
This may seem like a silly question to ask, because I truly can’t remember someone doing this in the last five years. Truth be told, this isn’t the way you want to try and beat the Packers, but there are some interesting offensive pieces in San Diego that should make for an interesting matchup.
Rivers has never been elite, but he’s consistently in the second-tier of quarterbacks even though his name doesn’t get mentioned enough as being one of the better signal callers in the game. He’s had a very solid career for someone who’s never had a great defense or coach to support him.
Rivers leads the league in passing yards through five games, despite not having his favorite target Antonio Gates for the first four. Gates is back now, and showed he hasn’t missed a beat by catching two touchdowns in his season debut last week. Even at 35, he will provide the biggest matchup problem for the Packers. He’s a master route-runner who knows exactly where the holes are in the zones of a defense, and he’s always had great hands. His chemistry with Rivers is undeniable and he’s still one of the best redzone threats in the league. I expect him to be targeted early and often, and I think the Packers’ safeties and linebackers will have trouble stopping the 6’4” tight end from moving the chains.
Keenan Allen is in his third year and is the Chargers’ best receiver. He exploded in his rookie season, breaking several Chargers’ rookie records along the way. After a numbers dip last year, he seems to have found his footing as the lead dog in this receiving core. Allen can line up outside or in the slot, so I’d expect a combination of Sam Shields, Casey Hayward and Demarious Randall to be across from him on Sunday. The Packers corners have played pretty well thus far this year, so I’d call this matchup somewhat of a wash, but I still expect Allen to make 5-7 catches on Sunday.
If Philip Rivers has a secret weapon, it’s running back Danny Woodhead. The former Patriot is the ideal third-down back, a great pass blocker and someone who can lineup all over the field as a receiver. Woodhead missed most of last season with a broken fibula, and when the Chargers’ offense slipped last year, it was apparent Rivers sorely missed him as a safety valve.
Woodhead is a diminutive 5’8,” but everyone who has counted him out so far has had to eat their words. Even with a stellar performance at the draft combine and numerous accolades in college, Woodhead went undrafted in 2008. He’s gone on to average 4.5 YPC and score 24 touchdowns since 2010, impressive considering he’s never been a lead back.
It will again be up to the Packers linebackers and safeties to contain Woodhead in space, and I expect he’ll have a few nice plays in the passing game. Moving Clay Matthews inside has done wonders for this defense, but he won’t be able to guard Gates and Woodhead and put pressure on the quarterback. Players like Nate Palmer and Micah Hyde will be called upon to step up.
As you probably know by now, the Chargers selected former Badger Melvin Gordon III with the 15th overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Gordon has shown flashes thus far in his brief career, though he’s yet to score a touchdown and has only averaged 3.8 YPC. The reason for this? The Chargers offensive line.
San Diego has gotten incredibly unlucky up front. The Chargers spent big on left guard Orlando Franklin this summer, but he’s questionable with an ankle injury and only got in a limited practice on Friday. Starting center Chris Watt is out with a concussion and a groin injury, right guard D.J. Fluker is also questionable with an ankle injury and didn’t practice Friday, starting left tackle King Dunlap is out with a concussion and his backup Chris Hairston is questionable with an ankle injury. This line wasn’t great to begin with, and injuries have completely sapped its effectiveness.
Gordon and Woodhead have done well enough, but there just haven’t been enough holes to run through. Rivers is on pace to take roughly 45 sacks; the one year he took more sacks than that was the only year he’s had a losing record in the NFL. With the Packers’ pass rush playing as well as we’ve ever seen it, this is a matchup they should feast on.
Clay is tied for second in the league in sacks despite playing the majority of his snaps at inside linebacker, and he’s having arguably his best season at a pro. Even with Nick Perry and B.J. Raji doubtful to play Sunday, the combination B.J. Raji, Julius Peppers, Mike Neal, Datone Jones and Jayrone Elliott should be enough to create pressure without overworking Matthews. It sounds high, but you can mark me down for five Green Bay sacks on Sunday. If the Packers can get on the board early, it will be hard for the Chargers to catch up if Rivers doesn’t have time to throw.
Can the Packers finally get the running game going?
It’s no secret the Packers offense hasn’t looked like its normal self the past few weeks. Most are quick to point a finger at Rodgers, who finally threw an interception at home last week. And though the performances have come against some solid front sevens, the underlying explanation for the offensive “struggles” has been the lack of success in the running game.
Lacy hurt his ankle in week two and it’s reasonable to believe he hasn’t gotten back to full health since then. I’m assuming playing running back in the NFL is pretty difficult on a bum ankle. His 4.1 YPC is down considerably from his 4.6 mark last year, and he’s only caught seven passes through five games. Lacy has almost split his snaps with James Starks, which further validates the theory that his ankle isn’t 100%. Starks has been fine, like always, but it would be nice to see more of Lacy on the field.
With the running game stalling somewhat, opposing cornerbacks are able to play press coverage with the Packers receivers. This has disrupted their routes somewhat, which is why Rodgers hasn’t been able to complete as many passes as we’re accustomed to seeing. Running the football better on Sunday would open up throwing lanes for Rodgers and his receivers.
Luckily for the Packers, the Chargers give up 132 rushing yards per game on average, good for fourth-worst in the league. If there’s any week to unleash Hulk Mode, it’s this one. Look for the Packers to establish the run early, and if Lacy can rip off a few nice runs in the first quarter, it should pay huge dividends for the Packers offense.
With right tackle Bryan Bulaga back and left guard T.J. Lang set to play, the Packers – barring any setbacks – should finally have their entire line together for the first full game since week one. With Josh Sitton continuing to play at an All-Pro level, I think Lacy comes into form on Sunday and runs for at least 90 yards.
Players to Watch
Ty Montgomery
You’ll notice I didn’t mention the Chargers’ secondary above; it’s quite good. Second-year corner Jason Verrett is the real deal, and I imagine he’ll match up with Randall Cobb for most of the afternoon. With veteran corner Brandon Flowers probably covering James Jones, that means rookie receiver Ty Montgomery should find room across the middle of the field. I think he reaches the end zone for a second straight week.
Eric Weddle
Weddle is a steady presence in the Chargers secondary, a playmaking safety who can make stops in both the passing game and running game. Randall Cobb has been drawing double teams for several weeks now, but with the aforementioned Verrett lined up across from him, the Chargers may not need to deploy as many safety-corner double teams on Sunday. If that’s the case, Weddle will have opportunities to make plays all over the field.
Datone Jones
With the Chargers offensive line depleted, I expect the Packers’ front seven to spend some time in the backfield. And with Clay playing inside and B.J. Raji and Nick Perry doubtful to play, someone else will have to step up. Julius Peppers is a usual candidate, but I’m picking Jones to have a good game Sunday. He hasn’t made a huge impact this year, but he blocked a kick last week and has always been streaky. Hopefully he proves me right.
Packers Injury Report
Probable:
T Bryan Bulaga (knee)
WR Randall Cobb (shoulder)
CB Demetri Goodson (hamstring)
WR James Jones (hamstring)
G T.J. Lang (knee)
LB Jake Ryan (hamstring)
Questionable:
WR Davante Adams (ankle)
S Morgan Burnett (calf)
CB LaDarius Green (heel)
Doutful:
LB Nick Perry (shoulder/hand)
DT B.J. Raji (groin)
Prediction
If the Chargers had their entire offensive line completely healthy, I think this would be a good game. The Chargers have the goods on offense to put up plenty of points, and their secondary is good enough to contain the Packers receivers. Still, asking a beaten up o-line to go on the road into Lambeau and beat the Packers at their own game is as tall of a task as there is.
Not only are the Packers 5-0 this year, they’re 5-0 against the spread. Every week Rodgers and the defense are faced with covering a huge spread, and every week they deliver. With the way the pass rush is playing, and with Rodgers ready to start a new interception-less streak, I’d be silly to think the Packers can’t cover again in Lambeau. Rodgers throws for three, Lacy runs one in, and the defense holds strong. Undefeated bye week here we come.
Green Bay 34, San Diego 20
So far this season: Straight up: 5-0, Against the Spread, 3-2
Sources: CBS Sports, Chargers.com, Pro-Football-Reference.com, Vegas Insider, Packers.com
Image: Bleacher Report