Currently at 21-17, and one game back of the St. Louis Cardinals in the Central Division, the Milwaukee Brewers are one of the early season surprises of baseball. While the beginning of the season has been exciting, there is still a question as to if the Brewers can maintain their current pace. While all Milwaukee fans would love to see a playoff run, the numbers say otherwise.
Their offense is scoring on average 5.19 runs a game, which is good for third in the league behind only the Washington Nationals and New York Yankees. Meanwhile their pitching staff gives up a very pedestrian 4.59 runs a game. According the Fangraphs projections, the Brewers average runs scored will drop nearly a full run between now and the rest of the season. On top of that, their runs allowed are projected to increase.
Eric Thames’ record start was something to behold, but due to some injuries his power production has begun to fall off. With Ryan Braun’s history of injuries, it is not unrealistic to think run production will eventually drop.
Fangraphs final projections slots the Brewers third in the National League Central behind the Cubs and Cardinals. But what Fangraphs cannot project is the heart of a team. On Mother’s Day, the Brewers were down 7-1 to the Mets heading into the bottom of the 6th. While things were looking dark, the Brewers managed to put together 10 runs over the next three innings en route to an 11-9 victory.
So will the Brewers make a run for the playoffs? The statistics say no, but the statistics don’t play the game.