What: Wisconsin Badgers (5-2, 2-1 B1G) @ Illinois Fighting Illini (4-2, 1-1 B1G)
Where: Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
When: Oct. 24, 2:30 P.M. CT
TV: BTN/BTN2GO
Radio: Badger Sports Network
Odds: Badgers -6
After taking care of business against Purdue in their homecoming game last weekend, the Badgers head to Champaign to face the Fighting Illini. Illinois comes into the matchup at 4-2, having lost to North Carolina and Iowa.
Wisconsin running back Corey Clement will reportedly know his status for Saturday when he wakes up Saturday morning, as the decision is on him if he feels ready to play. His confidence is not very high right now since he hasn’t seen game action since Alabama, but the Badgers may need Clement’s explosiveness out of the backfield against a tough Illini defense.
As you’ll see below, Illinois will be without three of their best offensive players in Josh Ferguson, Mike Dudek, and Justin Hardee. The team ranks 13th out of 14 teams in the Big Ten in rushing yards, but quarterback Wes Lund has nine touchdown passes and only two interceptions. Lund’s passing offense is 38th in the nation averaging 256.5 yards per game.
Still, the Fighting Illini have a strong defense that could give the Badgers trouble. The Illini rank 28th in the country in points against (19.7), but they only have sacked the opposing quarterback a Big Ten worst six times.
Injury Report
Wisconsin
RB Corey Clement – QUESTIONABLE
RB Taiwan Deal – DOUBTFUL
C Dan Voltz – PROBABLE
DE Arthur Goldberg – QUESTIONABLE
CB Derrick Tindal – PROBABLE
Illinois
RB Josh Ferguson – OUT
TE Caleb Reams – OUT
WR Marchie Murdock – OUT
WR Mike Dudek – OUT
WR Justin Hardee – OUT
LB Sean Adesanya – OUT
DL Jamal Milan – OUT
OL Zach Heath – OUT
DL Brandon Roberts – OUT
Four Keys to Victory: Wisconsin
- Will Clement play? Wisconsin running backs. Obviously, if Clement plays, the Badgers expect him to run for 100 yards and a few scores. If he decides he’s still not ready, redshirt junior Dare Ogunbowale and true freshman Alec Ingold will share the load again behind the stable offensive line. Ingold scored two impressive goal line touchdowns last week, and Ogunbowale has been effective in the passing game. But, there’s no doubt that if Corey Clement can play on Saturday that he will be the biggest key to victory.
- Limiting Stave’s turnovers. In the two games the Badgers have played against teams with top-tier defenses (Alabama and Iowa), quarterback Joel Stave has turned the ball over five times. Illinois gives up less than 20 points a game and have forced 10 turnovers in six games. Stave will have to make good decisions and avoid freakish plays (tripping on his own lineman and hitting thumb on one’s helmet) to lead the Badgers to victory on the road. It will be up to the (finally) stable Wisconsin offensive line to protect him. Again, Illinois has only SIX sacks all season, so the Badgers cannot be the team that start giving up pressure on the quarterback. All in all, when Stave has time, he usually makes good decisions and the Badgers win.
- Eyes on Illinois’s QB Wes Lunt, RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn and WR Geronimo Allison. As I mentioned above, three of Illinois’s best offensive players are out for the game. But, the Badgers will still have to worry about Illinois’s Lunt, Vaughn, and Allison. Lunt is a pocket quarterback, and he’s showed poise this season. The junior from Rochester, IL has a 58.4 completion percentage and 120.7 quarterback rating. The Badgers will need to get pressure on Lunt in hope of forcing mistakes. At running back, the freshman Vaughn will start with Ferguson still hobbled. Vaughn has run for a bit over four yards per carry, but he’s showed freshman hiccups such as fumbling in inopportune times. Coming off last week’s 15 tackle performance, Wisconsin inside linebacker T.J. Edwards will anchor the Badgers’ defense against the run. The most dangerous offensive weapon for the Illini is Allison, who averages over 100 yards receiving per game. The Biletnikoff Award watch list candidate has 40 receptions this season and is clearly Lunt’s favorite target. Look for Sojourn Shelton to be up for the challenge.
- A big defensive or special teams play. One thing the Badgers have not had all season is a defensive or special teams touchdown. Rafael Gaglianone kicked the game winner against Nebraska, Alex Erickson has had some big punt returns here and there and the defense has forced some turnovers, but the Badgers have not had that big play that stands out. Look for Erickson, kick returner Natrell Jamerson, Joe Schobert, Vince Biegel, or Michael Caputo to make a big play down the stretch. Gaglianone also needs to get on track and build some consistency.
Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Illinois 17
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