Reflection on Week 5
Click here for this week’s fantasy football rankings.
Per usual, I will be evaluating my picks from the previous week utilizing completions (good advice), interceptions (wrong advice), and incompletions (irrelevant advice).
Week 1: 16-15-5
Week 2: 11-16-9
Week 3: 13-14-9
Week 4: 19-13-4
Week 5 (below): 19-10-7
Total: 78-68-34
| Completions |
|
Incompletions |
| Philip Rivers (START) | Peyton Manning (START) | LeGarrette Blount (SLEEPER) |
| Blake Bortles (SLEEPER) | Andy Dalton (SIT) | Martavis Bryant (SIT) * inactive |
| Derek Carr (SIT) | Terrance Williams (START) | A.J. Green (BUST) |
| Russell Wilson (BUST) | Owen Daniels (START) | Richard Rodgers (SLEEPER) |
| Todd Gurley (START) | Gary Barnidge (SIT) | Steven Hauschka (START) |
| T.J. Yeldon (START) | Adam Vinatieri (BUST) | Dan Bailey (START) |
| Ameer Abdullah (SIT) | Houston D/ST (START) | Matt Prater (SLEEPER) |
| Boobie Dixon (SIT) | St. Louis D/ST (SIT) | |
| Jeremy Hill (BUST) | Pittsburgh D/ST (SIT) | |
| Brandin Cooks (START) | Arizona D/ST (BUST) | |
| Ty Montgomery (SLEEPER) | ||
| Amari Cooper (SIT) | ||
| Antonio Gates (START) | ||
| Coby Fleener (SIT) | ||
| Jimmy Graham (BUST) | ||
| Sebastian Janikowski (SIT) | ||
| Greg Zuerlein (SIT) | ||
| Packers D/ST (START) | ||
| Chiefs D/ST (SLEEPER) |
Week 6 Start/Sit
Quarterbacks
Start
Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
As detailed by Jacob Kupferman yesterday, Bridgewater has a money matchup against the team that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Bridgewater has not had a major statistical game yet, but look for him to thrive in this matchup at home.
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (@ Detroit Lions)
In recent seasons, I would have shied away from this matchup, especially in Detroit. But, with Cutler playing pretty well and the Lions struggling without defensive anchor DeAndre Levy, I see Cutler having a nice outing in Detroit on Sunday.
Sleeper: Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
In this rematch of Super Bowl XLVII, the 49ers and Ravens will matchup in a battle of the 1-4 fallen franchises. The Ravens have given up the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and I like Kaepernick’s legs in this game against a banged up Ravens defense.
Sit
Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Taylor has not looked good recently, hobbled by his MCL sprain. He may not even play on Sunday, so Taylor owners need to be on high alert for a replacement. Regardless, I don’t like him in this matchup against the Bengals near top 10 defense against opposing quarterbacks.
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (@ Tennessee Titans)
Tannehill needs to give me a reason to play him, and I actually do not like the matchup for him in Nashville. I see the Dolphins winning their first game in the Dan Campbell era on Sunday, but I’m not sure Tannehill is going to have a great game. I would sit him until he shows he can be a valuable fantasy asset again.
Bust Alert: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (@ Seattle Seahawks)
I really don’t like Cam this week, and I may end up starting Cutler over him. In his career against Seattle in the regular season, Newton is 0-3 with a 54.05% completion rate, 437 yards passing, one passing touchdown, one interception, and only 4.33 yards per carry without any rushing touchdowns.
Running Backs
Start
Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers (vs. San Diego Chargers)
Yes, Lacy has been very disappointing to fantasy owners (including myself) this season. But, the Chargers have given up the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The lead running back for all of their opponents has scored at least double digits (1/2 point PPR) in every game thus far. Start your superstars.
Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots (@ Indianapolis Colts)
We all know the history of the Patriots running the ball over the Colts, as Blount has seven rushing touchdowns in the last two playoff games against Indianapolis. I believe Lewis will be involved as well in the passing game, and Blount is undoubtedly going to get the call to run over the Colts’ subpar running game.
Sleeper: C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos (@ Cleveland Browns)
Peyton Manning is really struggling, and the running back needs to get going. Luckily for the Broncos, the Browns’ run defense given up the most rushing yards and fantasy points, and I see Anderson getting back into the mix again since Ronnie Hillman has a tweaked hamstring.
Sit
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (@ Seattle Seahawks)
The Seahawks’ run defense is exceptional and at home. Stewart has not been reliable every week this season, and I would not trust him in this matchup against the best home team in the NFL and a top 10 team against the run in terms of rushing yards
Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (@ Tennessee Titans)
Miller has had a very poor showing for fantasy owners this season, and he goes up against a top 10 run defense in the Titans. I see this as a low-scoring affair, and I have a hard time starting Miller until he earns it.
Bust Alert: Chris Johnson, Arizona Cardinals (@ Pittsburgh Steelers)
Andre Ellington is slowly getting back in the mix and David Johnson keeps getting his touchdowns. The Cardinals will likely elect to throw the ball a lot with the Steelers’ weak secondary, and CJ2K will be impacted by that. He’s in a running back committee of three guys, and the Steelers have a strong run defense, only giving up one rushing touchdown all season.
Wide Receivers
Start
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (vs. New England Patriots)
Last year, former Patriots’ cornerback Kyle Arrington shut down Hilton; Arrington has since been cut and joined the Ravens. Now, I see Hilton having a big game against New England, whether it be an a tight contest with Andrew Luck back or in a blowout with Matt Hasselbeck in the mix. Do keep an eye on Hilton’s health though, as he has been limited in practice this week.
Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. New York Giants)
The Giants’ pass defense gives up a lot of passing yards (second most) and receptions (most), which is where Matthews excels. They do not surrender as many fantasy points as you would think, but I like the matchup for Matthews at home in an uptempo game.
Sleeper: Kamar Aiken, Baltimore Ravens (@ San Francisco 49ers)
Aiken is essentially Joe Flacco’s favorite target with Steve Smith, Sr. banged up, and the 49ers have given up 18+ point days to Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, and Odell Beckham, Jr. this season. I’m not saying Aiken is near them in talent level, but I like his chances on Sunday in the Super Bowl XLVII rematch.
Sit
Travis Benjamin, Cleveland Browns (vs. Denver Broncos)
Benjamin finds a way to make big plays, but the Broncos are exceptional against the pass, giving up only three passing touchdowns all season. I think Josh McCown will come back to Earth this weekend, and Benjamin will get shut down by Aqib Talib and company.
Leonard Hankerson, Atlanta Falcons (@ New Orleans Saints)
Hankerson is not 100% right now after getting hurt last week (ribs). Matt Ryan should have a good game this week, but he probably should have played much better against the Redskins. I would not trust a WR3/FLEX play in Hankerson this week, especially with the Saints at home in primetime (even if they suck).
Bust Alert: Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins (@ Tennessee Titans)
The Titans have only surrendered 53 completions through four games, which is remarkable. Landry is a possession receiver who gets a lot of his fantasy points from receptions (if you do PPR). As aforementioned as well, I don’t trust Tannehill right now, and the Titans have a much improved defense.
Tight Ends
Start
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers (@ Seattle Seahawks)
I know I’ve had a lot of anti-Panthers comments in this week’s list so far, but Olsen may actually be one of the only Panthers to have a nice outing on Sunday. The Seahawks have given up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Houston Texans)
Thomas should be looking close to 100% this week, and we know how dangerous he was on the Broncos. It’s not the best matchup out there, but I like him this week more than other players.
Sleeper: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. New York Giants)
Ertz finally had a nice outing last week, catching five passes for 60 yards. The Giants have given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.
Sit
Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
Without Ben Roethlisberger, Miller has not been productive at all with only six receptions in his last three games. The Cardinals have given up the second least fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Clay has become a favorite target of Tyrod Taylor, who may not even play this week. I don’t see him having as big of an impact this week without Taylor and with the likely return of Sammy Watkins.
Bust Alert: Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins (@ New York Jets)
The Jets have a fierce defense as we’ve discovered. I see them getting a lot of pressure on Kirk Cousins, and the team is top five against opposing tight ends.
Kickers
Start
Matt Bryant, Atlanta Falcons (@ New Orleans Saints)
There’s no doubt that the Falcons will move the ball on the Saints Thursday night.
Nick Folk, New York Jets (vs. Washington Redskins)
I know the Redskins have been tough defensively, but I like Folk this week.
Sleeper: Josh Lambo, San Diego Chargers (@ Green Bay Packers)
I see the Chargers actually getting a lot of yards this week against the Packers, which will put Lambo’s huge leg in a position to get some points.
Sit
Travis Coons, Cleveland Browns (vs. Denver Broncos)
Coons has been great lately, but do you really think the Browns can drive the ball much on the Broncos’ defense?
Andrew Franks, Miami Dolphins (@ Tennessee Titans)
Low scoring affair against the Titans, and he has proven to be worth much value.
Bust Alert: Graham Gano, Carolina Panthers (@ Seattle Seahawks)
Read above about the other Panthers besides Olsen.
Defenses/Special Teams
Start
New York Jets vs. Washington Redskins
That Jets defense against Kirk Cousins? Yes, please.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Diego Chargers
Another defensive or special teams touchdown is bound to happen again this week.
Sleeper: Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos
Peyton is struggling, and the Browns are good at home.
Sit
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
The Eagles have been surprisingly good in terms of a D/ST for fantasy this season, but I like the Giants’ offense in this matchup too.
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers
Some people are saying to start them, and I couldn’t agree less. Their defense is horrible.
Bust Alert: Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I wouldn’t start their defense against Andy Dalton. Wait, did I really just say that?
Week 6 Predictions
After back-to-back average weeks, I look to get back at it this week. I’m not a fan of the matchups this week, but I think the Falcons, Jets, Cardinals, Broncos, Seahawks, Packers, and Patriots will definitely come up on top. The rest of the games are toss-ups.
Week 1: 10-6
Week 2: 7-9
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 8-7
Week 5: 7-7
Overall: 42-35
Week 6
Atlanta Falcons 24, New Orleans Saints 20 (Falcons -3.5)
Washington Redskins 10, New York Jets 24 (Jets -7)
Arizona Cardinals 34, Pittsburgh Steelers 23 (Cardinals -3.5)
Kansas City Chiefs 26, Minnesota Vikings 30 (Vikings -4)
Cincinnati Bengals 27, Buffalo Bills 21 (Bengals -3.5)
Chicago Bears 20, Detroit Lions 23 (Lions -3)
Denver Broncos 20, Cleveland Browns 13 (Broncos -4)
Houston Texans 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 20 (EVEN)
Miami Dolphins 13, Tennessee Titans 10 (Dolphins +1)
Carolina Panthers 13, Seattle Seahawks 24 (Seahawks -8)
Baltimore Ravens 17, San Francisco 49ers 20 (49ers +1)
San Diego Chargers 24, Green Bay Packers 27 (Packers -11.5)
New England Patriots 45, Indianapolis Colts 31 (Patriots -9)
New York Giants 31, Philadelphia Eagles 34 (Eagles -4.5)
Sources: Yahoo! Fantasy, ESPN Fantasy, Rotowire
Image: Matthews