The Wisconsin Badgers Men’s Basketball team’s stock is rising since last time we talked about the team’s résumé.

With five straight Big 10 wins over #3 Michigan State, Penn State, #19 Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State, the Badgers have surged up the standings and now sit in 7th place in the Big 10 with a (6-4) conference record.

The Turning Point

The turning point in the season came just 3.5 weeks ago following the Badgers’ marginal road loss to Northwestern. The Badgers had hit rock bottom with their third straight Big 10 loss and were visibly frustrated.

Following that game, Nigel Hayes vocalized some understandable post game emotion saying “I’ve never been one to go around yelling, (and I) try not to cuss,” Hayes exclaimed. “But, if that’s what it takes to get my guys and myself to play better.”

Thankfully, Hayes turned that frustration into fearless passion and leadership on the court. The former Big 10 Sixth Man of the Year has not only put up an average of 21.8 points over the last 5 games, but he has also become a vocal team leader and the heart and sole of this Badgers team. He has played much more aggressively, getting to the free throw line for 57 attempts in the last five games, and even more importantly, Hayes has regained the confidence that made him a preseason All-American. Quite simply, the Nigel Hayes that everyone has been waiting for has arrived, and he wants everyone to “Remember that. No one on your team can guard me.”

Another major key to the Badgers recent success has been the play of three-time Big 10 Freshman of the Week Ethan Happ. The redshirt freshman has filled the Frank Kaminsky void much better than anyone could have imagined. He has made his presence felt on the court, grabbing an average of 8.1 rebounds per game in addition to a healthy 12.3 points per game. With the exception of a few traveling violations, Happ has proved to be a reliable player that can make the tough shots and play an effective game from the post.

Current Position

Following a five-game win streak, which has included victories over former #1 Michigan State and conference-leading Indiana, the Badgers have most certainly asserted themselves into consideration for one of the 36 at large bids in the NCAA Tournament. ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi most recently (February 5) predicted Wisconsin as the sixth team left out of the NCAA tournament. But with a (6-4) conference record, good enough for seventh in the BIg Ten, and recent play weighted heavier, I think the Badgers are closer to the top of the bubble rather than the bottom.

Marquee Wins

74-73 win on a neutral court against VCU (Current BPI: 24; KenPom.com: 26)
66-58 win at #14 Syracuse (Current BPI: 40; KenPom.com: 36)
77-76 win at home against #4 Michigan State (Current BPI: 9; KenPom.com: 6)
82-79 win at home against #19 Indiana (Current BPI: 20; KenPom.com: 20)

Bad Losses

67-69 loss at home against Western Illinois (Current BPI: 225; KenPom.com: 229)
67-68 loss at home against UW-Milwaukee (Current BPI: 115; KenPom.com: 122)
55-57 loss at home against Marquette (Current BPI: 99; KenPom.com: 110)

Key Stats

Helping: The Badgers have lost five games by a combined total of 14 points, including a buzzer beater loss against #3 Maryland. According to KenPom.com, Wisconsin has had the 33rd toughest schedule in the country.

Hurting: The Badgers have four losses to teams outside of the top 100 in RPI and hold a weak (1-3) record against teams currently ranked in the top 25.

Historical Perspective

Typically, the selection committee takes anywhere from 6-8 teams from the Big 10 conference. In the past two year,s the teams advancing from the Big 10 conference had .500 records and an over estimated .650 total records (see my last article for more details). Based on the Big 10’s average performances against out of conference teams, I would guess that seven teams will be selected from the Big 10, possibly eight now that Louisville has been banned from post season play this year.

What Next?

With a .500 conference record and .650 total record as the general trend for Big 10 teams to make it to the NCAA tourney, the Badgers seem to be in good shape with a (14-9) total record and a (6-4) conference record. However, with the bad losses to four teams outside the RPI top 100 and a lowly 1-3 record against teams in the Top 25, the Badgers will have to prove to the committee even more why they deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament.

My prediction would be that, in the last eight games, the Badgers will have to go 5-3 with an additional win coming in the Big 10 Tournament. Regular season wins against Nebraska, Illinois and Minnesota are musts. So the Badgers will have to capture a home win against Michigan and at least one on the road against Iowa, Michigan State, Maryland, and Purdue if they hope to go dancing this year.

What to Watch For

  • Greg Gard’s successful attempt at looking deeper into the bench for contributions. Guys like Khalil Iverson, Alex Illikainen, and Jordan Hill, who saw very limited playing time under Bo Ryan, have provided a boost of much needed energy to the Badgers and have helped to keep Ethan Happ, Vitto Brown, and Bronson Koenig well rested and out of foul trouble.
  • What’s going on outside of the Big 10 conference? If teams start to slip up in conference games, as we’ve seen in the Big 12, this could allow the Badgers to sneak in.
  • Pay attention to how teams the Badgers have played this season are playing. If teams like UW-Milwaukee continue to have success, the loss won’t look as bad. On the flip side, however, if teams like Syracuse or Temple continue to slip, then the Badgers victory over them will not look nearly as good as they once did.