Fear the Deer. Bucks in 6. Light it up, light it up. Though the Bucks don’t have the biggest following, those of us that bleed green and purple/red/cream are as passionate as they come, even though there hasn’t been much to cheer about since 2001. That’s all beginning to change, though. The arrival of new ownership, a promising new coach, a proposed new arena, loads of young talent, some sleek new logos and GIANNIS have signified a positive shift in the Bucks’ future outlook. Milwaukee has already put the league on notice by taking the Bulls to six games in a surprisingly competitive and feisty series in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

In a deep rebuild like the one the Bucks are currently in, every draft pick is extremely important, even one outside the lottery. The Bucks don’t need to hit a homerun, but with the 17^th pick in a solid draft class, they at least need to end up on base to keep the rebuild in full force. Before analyzing potential first round picks for the Bucks this year, I think it would be a healthy exercise to grade out how the Bucks have drafted in recent years and the success (or lack thereof) these picks have translated to. This may give us an indication as to the direction with which the Bucks’ upper management will go with this year’s pick.

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Bucks’ draft picks from 2005-2014

2005 – 1st overall pick: Andrew Bogut

I figured this would be a good place to start, considering Bogut essentially served as a bridge from the Ray Allen-Sam Cassell-Glenn Robinson (Big Three) era. The Bucks had a 6.3% chance of getting the first pick and yet somehow Larry Harris was the first general manager to shake hands with the commissioner that year. Bogut and North Carolina forward Marvin Williams were the consensus top two picks, and the Bucks clearly made the right choice between the two. Bogut is currently the center and defensive anchor on the reigning champions and best defensive team in the league, whereas Marvin Williams is still trying to discover his NBA role, presently trying to redefine himself as a stretch-four in Charlotte. Unfortunately, a scrappy point guard from Wake Forest named Chris Paul would get drafted three spots after Bogut, forever rendering him the “wrong” pick. Bogut was solid but rarely healthy in Milwaukee, and we have since learned he is much better served as a role player than a go-to guy. Snagging Ersan Ilyasova with the sixth pick of the second round was a great value pick and helped boost the success of this draft.

Overall Grade: B

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2006 – No first round pick

The Bucks traded the 15th overall pick (the Hornets selected Cedric Simmons), Desmond Mason and cash considerations for one sloppy season of Jamaal Magloire. The Bucks then took David Noël out of North Carolina with the 39th pick in the draft, who went on to play one season in the NBA. Two-time All-Star Paul Millsap was drafted eight spots later. I started wearing jeans for the first time in 2006, which is more positive than anything I can say about this year for the Bucks.

Overall Grade: D-

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2007 – 6th overall pick: Yi Jianlian 

Maybe by now you’re starting to notice a trend of the Larry Harris years. The Bucks had the third-worst record yet ended up with the sixth overall pick and decided to swing for the fences with Jianlian. Here’s a list of the competent NBA players drafted after Yi in 2007 (in order of draft position:) Corey Brewer, Brendan Wright, JOAKIM NOAH, Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young, Rodney Stuckey, Nick “Swaggy P” Young, Marco Belinelli, Jared Dudley, Wilson Chandler, Aaron Brooks, Aaron Afflalo, Tiago Splitter, Carl Landry, Glen “Big Baby” Davis, Josh McRoberts, MARC GASOL and Ramon Sessions. That’s right: in Sessions, the Bucks drafted a better player than Yi FIFTY freaking picks later. This draft offers a nice summation of the Bucks’ lost years: unluckily getting the worst possible spot in relation to their final season record (Al Horford was picked third, by the way) and managing to fail miserably in a draft loaded with NBA rotation players. Yi played 66 games for the Bucks in his rookie season, then was traded for one solid year of Richard Jefferson.

Overall Grade: F+ (the year of RJ and the Sessions find slightly saved this disaster)

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2008 – 8th overall pick: Joe Alexander

As much as I want to, I can’t even blame this god-awful pick on Larry Harris, because this was actually John Hammond’s first pick as general manager. Great start! This pick came before NBA notables such as Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, Roy Hibbert, Nicolas Batum and DeAndre Jordan. Noticing a trend here? Alexander played 67 total games in his two NBA seasons, though he was part of of the trade that brought over John Salmons, which slightly softens the blow. Hammond did manage to save face somewhat by drafting Luc Richard Mbah a Moute early in the second round. Mbah a Moute enjoyed five solid seasons as a role player on the Bucks, establishing himself as their best perimeter defender before being traded to Sacramento for two second round picks.

Overall Grade: D-

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2009 – 10th overall pick: Brandon Jennings

Hey, a solid pick! Though drafting Ty Lawson or Jeff Teague would have been more ideal, Jennings was still the best pick the Bucks had made in a long time. BJ3 became an instant fan favorite in Milwaukee, setting numerous records en route to a 55-point performance only a few months into his rookie season (without even scoring in the first quarter!). Jennings was largely the Bucks’ best player during four up-and-down seasons in Milwaukee, and he deserves leads of credit for the now infamous “Bucks in six” quote referenced above. He averaged 17.1 PPG, 5.6 APG, 3.4 RPG and 1.5 SPG while shooting 39% from the floor as a Buck. Perhaps Jennings’ best influence in Milwaukee has ironically come since leaving: Hammond has since turned him into Khris Middleton, Michael Carter-Williams, Tyler Ennis and Miles Plumlee through trades. Jennings’ passing numbers are up in Detroit, but his scoring is down and he still shoots a very poor percentage for someone hoisting around 15 shots per game. The Bucks again managed to find value in the second round by drafting Jodie Meeks 41st overall, though they don’t really deserve much credit here by ultimately giving up on his potential and trading him midway through his rookie season. Meeks has since gone on to become a double-digit scoring bench player with a career 37% mark from three.

Overall Grade: B+

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2010 – 15th overall pick: Larry Sanders

I refuse to count Larry Sanders’ recent leaving of the NBA against Hammond for making this pick. Sanders was great value outside the lottery, and was actually on pace to becoming a more valuable player than Jennings before various off the court issues led the Bucks to buy out his shiny new four-year $44 million contract this past season. Many thought Sanders was on his way to becoming an elite defensive center, exemplified by the 2012-2013 NBA season in which he finished second to Serge Ibaka in BPG with 2.8 and finished third in the voting for Most Improved Player. I don’t have room in this space to donate to the entirety of his ‘downfall,’ but needless to say Sanders did not live up to his potential on the court. He is now out of the game of basketball for the foreseeable future, and we all wish him well in his battle against the mental issues that prompted him stepping away from the game. Here is his A-curve career summed up in a handy little statistical chart:

The Bucks whiffed on all three of their second round picks, and Sanders turned out to be a disaster, but this was actually one of Hammond’s best selections.

Overall Grade: A-

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2011 – 19th overall pick: Tobias Harris*

Another great pick by Hammond, Harris was an undeniable steal at 19th. Unfortunately, most of the praise for Hammond is negated by his shortsighted decision to trade him, Beno Udrih and Doron Lamb for J.J. Redick, Gustavo Ayón and Ish Smith halfway through his second NBA season. Harris was simply a victim of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. He was very raw coming out of college at 19 and played under head coach Scott Skiles, who is notorious for not entrusting rookies with playing time. This also simultaneously occurred while the Bucks tried to make a late-season push for the playoffs. The Bucks missed the postseason that year, and Harris has gone on to average 16 points and 7 rebounds per game for the Magic, while proving to be very clutch along the way. The Bucks took former Badger Jon Leuer in the second round, who is currently a fringe rotation-player for the Memphis Grizzlies.

Overall Grade: B+

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2012 – 14th overall pick: John Henson

Henson was another solid pick by Hammond at the back of the lottery, and one who still has a lot of upside. His 8 and 5 career average thus far doesn’t jump off the page, but when you take a deeper look his advanced numbers help paint a more complete picture. He was fifth in the league last year with 2 blocks per game, and his PER has been 18 all three years in the league. He also has only averaged 20 minutes per game in his career, and when his numbers are prorated over 36 minutes he averages a double-double. Though it’s still not clear whether Henson fits better as a 4 or 5, and he needs to bulk up a bit, he’s clearly now a part of the Bucks’ long-armed core. A great rim protector and a good finisher around the hoop, Jason Kidd should look to get Henson more minutes next season. The Bucks drafted Doron Lamb in the second round, who was used in the aforementioned trade for J.J. Redick and hasn’t done much since.

Overall Grade: B

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2013 – 15th overall pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo

If you’ve gotten this far in this article, then you probably know plenty about Giannis, the Bucks’ future manifested in a Greek, long-armed athletic wunderkind aptly dubbed “The Greak Freak.” Giannis was an absolute steal at 15th in a weak draft class, and he would undoubtedly go in the top two if the GMs were lucky enough to have a redraft. Without trying to jynx him, this could easily be the most valuable pick in Bucks’ history based on what we’ve seen thus far. Giannis made strides across the board in the jump from his rookie to sophomore seasons, and he is already capable of doing things we’ve never really seen on a basketball court. If he continues to improve at this rate, there is really no limit to what he can become. None of us really know what that will be, which is the scariest part of all. The Bucks traded for the rights to point guard Nate Wolters in the second round, someone who I thought showed a lot of promise as a rookie but was released by the Bucks during his sophomore season.

Overall Grade: A+

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2014 – 2nd overall pick: Jabari Parker

The Bucks received the second pick in the draft after a franchise-worst 15-win season in 2013. They selected Jabari Parker out of Duke, a young forward with a polished offensive game and clear upside. Jabari averaged 12.7 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game and looked pretty impressive as a rookie, earning the October/November Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month award before going down with a torn ACL in December. With such a small sample size of professional games, the jury is still out on Parker, especially on the defensive end. That said, this was clearly the right pick for the Bucks, and fans in Milwaukee are salivating at the chance to watch Jabari and Giannis run the fast break together for years to come. Another year of team chemistry and growth under Kidd should do wonders for Jabari, who is said to be on track in his recovery from ACL surgery. The Bucks drafted forwards Damien Inglis and Johnny O’Bryant III in the second round; Inglis missed the entire season with a foot injury and O’Bryant III was largely anonymous in limited time at power forward. They both need a lot more time in the league before they can be properly evaluated.

Overall Grade: A

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If you’ve made it this far, thanks for sticking with me. John Hammond has clearly shown a knack for being able to find talent in the middle of the draft, and the Bucks need to maintain that trend this year to continue building towards the future. I have identified two large needs and a possible third need on their roster. First and foremost, the Bucks need a post scoring presence who can bang around with NBA big men on the boards, and they desperately need shooting. Khris Middleton is a free agent this year (though expected to re-sign), and Zaza Pachulia and OJ Mayo will likely be headed elsewhere after this season ends. There is also a decently sized question mark at point guard. The Bucks seem confident that Michael Carter-Williams can grow into the point guard of the future under Kidd’s guidance, but he’s a disaster shooting the ball and still has many things to work on. Tyler Ennis is still young and was great in college, but he is also not someone the Bucks should be expecting to count on for the future.

With the 17th pick in a seemingly talented draft class and several different needs to address, the Bucks have a wealth of options they can choose from. Above all, the pick needs to be someone who can help the Bucks grow offensively yet who still fits in to their aggressive defensive scheme. Different mock drafts have the Bucks taking at least ten different players, so I broke down some of those potential options and will conclude with who I think would fit best in the Bucks’ system. Gary Karagodsky also provided us with some insight into potential first and second round picks for the Bucks.

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Potential 1st Round Picks (SST’s 5 Mock Drafts Average Draft Position, or ADP, in parentheses)

Devin Booker – Kentucky – Shooting Guard – 18 – 6’6′ – 206 LBS (ADP = 10)

Booker is probably the best pure shooter in the draft, so if he falls the Bucks should give him a long look based on that alone. He’s still very young, and he played with so much talent on Kentucky last year that he didn’t even get to start, which is why he would be the perfect understudy for Khris Middleton and OJ Mayo. He’s a great spot-up shooter who can catch-and-shoot, though he needs to improve somewhat at creating his own shot off the dribble. Booker’s also an underrated passer for such a good shooter. He got used to playing off the ball in Kentucky, which helped him develop good cutting instincts and turned him into a better finisher around the rim, though not a great one. He’s long and big enough to be a decent defender at the next level, but he needs to work on his footwork on the perimeter and in the post, which Sam Dekker helped show us in the Final Four. Still, he’s only 18, and his youth, length and most importantly shooting stroke would all be welcome in Milwaukee. Unfortunately, his upside is so large that he’ll probably go in the lottery.

Frank Kaminsky – Wisconsin – Center – 22 – 7’1” – 231 LBS (ADP = 13)

Even putting hometown bias aside, Kaminsky is a potential pick for the Bucks at 17 if he falls that far. They desperately need shooting and could also stand to improve at rebounding, and Kaminksy projects to be at least good at both of those skills. Frank isn’t athletic, however, and it could take him several years to figure out how to defend at the pro level, if he ever does at all. He also needs to bulk up a bit if he wants to bang around in the paint. Even though he has a very polished offensive game, good character and is a better passer, shooter and ball-handler than most seven footers, it feels like he doesn’t match what the Bucks want on defense enough for them to pick him. I also think he projects much more as a rotation big man than he does a legitimate starter. This may all be moot anyway, as we could see him taken by the Suns or the Jazz before the Bucks make their selection.

Sam Dekker – Wisconsin – Forward – 21 – 6’9” – 219 LBS (ADP = 14.8)

Dekker saw his draft stock soar after an impressive March Madness run that finally saw him living up to his expected potential. Even still, he remains one of the biggest question marks in the draft, especially as a shooter. Dekker is springy and athletic, and he has clear potential as a ball-handler and passer for someone of his height. He also projects to be a solid defender, but his role on an NBA team is still very unclear. At his best, he could be the perfect fit with the current offensive and defensive progression of the NBA: he could help push the pace as both a secondary ball-handler and someone capable of finishing alley-oops, and he has the potential to guard positions 2-4. One of his best roles could even be as a stretch-4 if he can bulk up, which he should. But his ceiling is appreciably lower if he can’t shoot; there just simply isn’t much room anymore for a non-shooting wing unless he is an elite–level defender, something Dekker will probably never be. He would be an interesting gamble for the Bucks, but I don’t see them adding to their already crowded group of wings at 17.

Kevon Looney – UCLA – Power Forward – 19 – 6’9” – 222 LBS (ADP = 15.6)

A Milwaukee native, Looney represents yet another mid-first round pick with plenty of upside but equally as many question marks. Looney was thought to be a top-ten pick before a poor tournament showing saw his stock fall considerably. He has a 7’3’’ wingspan that would fit perfectly with the Bucks’ defensive scheme and he is a great rebounder who hounds the glass, which is something the Bucks simply don’t have. He’s a good ball-handler for a big man and has good range, but he needs his shot to be much more consistent and he needs to put on muscle if he wants to play power forward at the next level. Looney’s biggest concern is consistency on both ends of the court, which is a huge red flag for scouts. He could be a huge mid-round steal or a bust who never lives up to his potential; it’s not unrealistic for the Bucks to take such a gamble at 17, but I think there are better options for them. Still, his rebounding, shooting, age and length may all be too much for the Bucks to pass up.

Trey Lyles – Kentucky – Forward/Center – 19 – 6’10” – 241 LBS (ADP = 16.2)

The trading of Ersan Ilyasova was certainly meant to open up more playing time for Giannis, Parker, Henson, Jared Dudley and possibly even Inglis and O’Bryant. That said, there really is no true power forward outside of O’Bryant on the roster, so this is now a big position of need in Milwaukee. Trey Lyles would fit in perfectly with the lanky defenders on the Bucks, and he would provide some nice floor spacing at the four or five. He’s only 19 and he was athletic enough to play on the wing in college. He could be a very valuable pick outside of the lottery and on the surface seems like a nice fit in the Bucks’s system on both ends of the court.

Bobby Portis – Arkansas – Power Forward – 20 – 6’10” – 246 LBS (ADP = 18.4)

Portis is only 20, yet he may be one of the most offensively ready players in the draft. He certainly has an NBA-ready body and his length would again be a good fit with the Bucks. His midrange game is good enough that he could pair well with Henson, and his footwork and instincts on defense should transfer well at the next level. He’s also a solid rebounder and gives his all on the offensive glass. His ceiling may not be as high as some of the other options due to his lack of elite athleticism, and he’ll need to develop a stronger post game, but he figures to be someone who can contribute right away. He also can run the break decently and has solid handles for a big man, which is important for anyone pairing with MCW, Giannis, Middleton and Parker. If Portis is still available, he should definitely be in consideration for the seventeenth pick.

Tyus Jones – Duke – Point Guard – 19 – 6’1” – 184 LBS (ADP = 18.8)

Tyus Jones, or Tyus Stones as some call him, is an all too familiar name for fans of Badgers Basketball. He made clutch shot after clutch shot against Wisconsin, both in their early-season tilt and in the National Championship game, and is probably the biggest reason I’m still stinging from the end of March Madness. Scouts are impressed by his confidence, maturity, decision-making and ability to run a half-court offense, and pass-first point guards are becoming seemingly rare in the NBA today. He’s also a great free throw shooter who gets to the line a lot for somebody his size, so he too could be a decent fit with MCW. He could struggle at the next level defensively, as he suffers when comparing his quickness and athleticism to those of professional point guards, and he doesn’t have the size to make up for his slow first step. I think there’s enough questions on defense for the Bucks to pass on Jones, which is fitting, because he’ll probably get drafted by the Bulls and hit clutch shots against Milwaukee for the next five-plus years.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson – Arizona – Small Forward – 20 – 6’7” – 211 LBS (ADP = 19.6)

Hollis-Jefferson is one of the more known commodities as someone who is a guaranteed first-round pick simply because of his defensive abilities. He projects as a potentially elite perimeter defender, which we’ve seen is something incredibly important in the last two NBA Finals (read: stopping LeBron). The problem is the Bucks already have Giannis, Jabari, Inglis and hopefully Khris Middleton, an army of growing wing players who all need playing time. It just doesn’t seem like there’s room on this roster for a defensive wing, which is what the Bucks hope to already have in Inglis. Teams will be drafting Hollis-Jefferson hoping they can help him improve his jumper, though it’s still unclear how high a defense-first prospect will go this year.

Jerian Grant – Notre Dame – Point Guard – 22 – 6’4” – 200 LBS (ADP = 20.6)

Most mock drafts don’t have the Bucks taking a point guard, but I don’t think it’s an unreasonable proposition. Grant, the nephew of NBA champion Horace Grant, carried a Notre Dame team full of role players and nearly took down Kentucky by himself in the NCAA Tournament. He has good size and athleticism for a point guard, both of which should help the transition to the next level. He has good handles and takes care of the ball well, and he’s a good enough shooter to pair with MCW in the backcourt. Grant has proven the ability step up in big games (see: Kentucky) and his four years of college experience against good competition means he’s probably one of the more NBA ready players in this draft. Most think his ceiling isn’t as high as most of the other first round talents this year, but an athletic and confident NBA-ready point guard could be a steal outside of the lottery.

R.J. Hunter – Georgia State – Shooting Guard – 21 – 6’6” – 185 LBS (ADP = 23.8)

Hunter, another darling of the NCAA tournament, is one of the few pure shooters in the draft, which is why he should be on the Bucks radar. He might also be a reach at 17, as one recent mock draft had him going as late as 30 to the Warriors. That said, the Bucks need his shooting abilities, and he is long enough to fit in with the Bucks defensively. He’ll have to fill out a bit for the pros, and he isn’t especially athletic or laterally quick. One knock on his game is that he didn’t play against great competition in college in the Sun Belt Conference, but this didn’t seem to be a problem in the tournament when he helped take down #3 seed Baylor in the Round of 64. Hunter is confident (sometimes too confident with his shot selection) and a supposed good leader, and he will certainly benefit from defenses not keying on him as the go-to scorer. He is one of the more known commodities the Bucks could take at 17, but there should be better options available with much higher upside and a better all-around game.

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Final Verdict

If we give Hammond a pass on selecting Alexander with his first pick, he’s enjoyed some pretty great drafting success over the years, especially when looking at the value he’s discovered outside of the lottery. The Bucks need their GM to continue this pattern to keep the Bucks’ future outlook as bright as it currently feels. Looking back at his recent picks, the traits that Hammond seems to value are youth, upside, length and defensive potential.

With that in mind, there are a few options that I think fit the Bucks’ roster the most. Trey Lyles feels like the most ideal choice for me. He has the length and upside the Bucks are looking for, he fills an obvious need, and he should be able to help space the floor. After Lyles, I think Devin Booker and Bobby Portis present the next-best options, for similar reasons. This year’s draft is as hard to predict as any we’ve seen recently, so there’s truly no telling who will be available when the Bucks are selecting seventeenth. If those three aren’t obtainable, I think Looney, Grant, Harrell and Kaminsky could all serve to help the Bucks continue their rebuild. There will be a fresh new face in Milwaukee next year; I can’t wait to find out who it is.

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* The Bucks actually had the 10^th pick in the 2011 draft, but they traded that pick (Kings took Jimmer Fredette), Corey Magette and John Salmons and in return received the 19^th pick, Beno Udrih, Stephen Jackson and Shaun Livingston.

Sources:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2015_advanced.html