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Wisconsin has swung from a 9.5-point underdog in Week 4 to a 9.5-point favorite at home in Week 5 after a surprise victory over No. 13 Penn State. The Badgers aim to start Big Ten play 2-0 and win four straight before their only bye week; the lines below reflect that shift, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Spread: Wisconsin -9.5
At first glance the jump in the line feels dramatic. Wisconsin’s road upset over Penn State certainly turned heads, but oddsmakers appear cautious about the Badgers’ ability to repeat that performance against Michigan State.
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One reason is Wisconsin’s offense. For much of the Penn State game the Badgers struggled to move the ball, and quarterback Colton Joseph has been turnover-prone — eight “turnover-worthy plays,” a total tied for one of the worst marks nationally, according to Pro Football Focus. If Joseph keeps giving the ball away, Michigan State can create extra possessions and tighten a game that looks lopsided on paper.
That said, the Spartans are not immune to mistakes. Their defense has produced just one interception this season, and quarterback Alessio Milivojevic carries seven turnover-worthy plays himself. With both signal-callers showing ball-security issues, Wisconsin’s defense should have opportunities to force turnovers.
Michigan State’s run defense has been vulnerable. The Spartans rank around the mid-60s nationally, allowing roughly 124 rushing yards per game. Power Four opponents Notre Dame and Nebraska each rushed for more than 150 yards against them. With Wisconsin intent on establishing a ground game, that matchup favors the Badgers if they can execute.
Bottom line: if Wisconsin can clean up its ball security and get a steadier rushing attack, its defense should keep Michigan State from hanging around. For those reasons my pick on the spread is Wisconsin -9.5.
Total: 43.5
Last week the under cashed when the total opened at 44.5 and the final score finished 24-20. That outcome reinforces the case for another low-scoring affair.
Wisconsin’s defensive performance at Beaver Stadium was dominant; against a top-15 opponent the Badgers repeatedly prevented movement and limited scoring to a couple of field-goal drives. If that unit shows up again, points will be hard to come by for Michigan State.
The Spartans’ offense has also shown limitations. Milivojevic’s turnovers and the season-ending loss of running back Cam Edwards have weakened Michigan State’s ability to generate consistent offense.
Given those factors, I expect Michigan State to finish in the low double digits and the game to stay under the posted total. My pick: Under 43.5.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
