Hair-pulling, heart-wrenching, wall-punching – a few of the sentiments felt during last year’s demoralizing Packers season. Perhaps these feelings were further enhanced by the fact Green Bay was literally minutes away from sealing a trip to Super Bowl 49 just one year prior. The void left from a down year – despite 10 wins in the regular season and a playoff victory – will almost certainly be filled this season, right?
This season’s schedule is possibly the most unique schedule Green Bay has ever seen, starting with a preseason that includes five games as opposed to the typical four (Green Bay will face the Indianapolis Colts in the Hall of Fame game in Canton, Ohio on August 7th). Unusually long stretches of home and away games highlight a noteworthy schedule which encompasses five nationally-televised games and even a Saturday game on Christmas Eve.
Green Bay enters the 2016 season with the ‘easiest’ strength of schedule based on opponents’ records from last year, with a cumulative record of 117-139 (.457). As great as this looks on paper, one question stains the validity of putting too much weight on this one factor – how much does the strength of schedule matter before the season even begins? No team is ever the same year in and year out – Aaron Rodgers states it every offseason.
New players, new coaches, new schemes, and new plays all change the complexion of the season and make the year prior seemingly obsolete. Hence, basing projections of games on rosters built last season mean very little in the context of the next 16 games that will be played. The best way, rather, is to evaluate teams as they stand following the inevitable roster turnover.
I will be doing a four-part series breakdown of Green Bay’s opponents, addressing their offseason transactions, current state of the team, and what to watch when the matchup arrives. Here’s Part I breaking down the Packers’ opponents and matchups to watch for (stay tuned for Parts II, III, and IV):
*Italicized names acquired via draft
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 11th @ 12:00 p.m. (FOX) – at Jacksonville Jaguars (A)
Key acquisitions: DT Malik Jackson, OT Kevin Beachum, FS Tashaun Gipson, CB Prince Amukamara, RB Chris Ivory, CB Jalen Ramsey, LB Myles Jack
Key departures: DE Chris Clemons, DT Andre Branch
Overview : This is exactly the kind of game that negates any importance of last year’s record. Jacksonville was 5-11 last season but have talent across the roster that gives them a shot to make the playoffs this year. Few teams were as active as Jacksonville was this offseason – and they made all the right moves. As observed in their player acquisitions, defense was the point of emphasis after ranking 31st in points allowed/game and tied 26th in takeaways. Jacksonville signed ex-Broncos defensive end Malik Jackson to a 6 year, $90 million contract to shore up their defensive front. The Jaguars used their 5th overall pick in the draft to nab top-rated cornerback Jalen Ramsey and, potentially, had the steal of the draft taking Myles Jack with the 36th overall pick after he was listed as a top-5 pick.
Their offense made great strides in Blake Bortles’ second year as their starter as he threw for 35 touchdowns in 2015 (up from 11 in 2014). Jacksonville had arguably one of the best receiver duos in the league with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns on the outside. TJ Yeldon proved himself as a viable starting running back and the addition of Chris Ivory brings more Pro Bowl talent to an already dangerous offense. The craziest part about Jacksonville is how young they are. Out of the 355 receptions they had as a team, only 16 receptions came from someone over the age of 30. Other than Ivory, none of the aforementioned names are older than 24 years old.
What to watch: The linebacker play for both teams is something to keep your eye on as the season kicks off. How will the Packers’ inside linebackers perform in their first regular season test? Can they effectively cover? Will Clay strictly play outside? How will Myles Jack perform and are there any concerns with his knee? Any other year this game should be a gimme, but the growth of their roster and newly signed players make Week 1 at Jacksonville very dangerous.
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 18th @ 7:30 p.m. (NBC) – at Minnesota Vikings (A)
Key acquisitions: G Alex Boone, S Michael Griffin, OT Andre Smith, LB Emmanuel Lamur, LB Travis Lewis, WR Laquon Treadwell, CB Mackenzie Alexander, LB Kentrell Brothers
Key departures: WR Mike Wallace, CB Josh Robinson, S Robert Blanton
Overview: The reigning NFC North division champions bring back a young, balanced roster with an all-time great running back that make them a real threat. As seen last year, defense wins championships and Minnesota is built to be a defensive force under Mike Zimmer’s tutelage, finishing fifth in points allowed/game (18.5). Minnesota struck UCLA-gold in the last two drafts finding linebackers Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks to solidify a strong front-seven that includes Everson Griffin, Linval Joseph, Sharrif Floyd, and Brian Robison along the line. Safety Harrison Smith plays his position as well as anyone in the league, earning him back-to-back first-team All-Pro selections.
Minnesota’s offense goes as Adrian Peterson goes. Peterson continued his career dominance by reclaiming his rushing title last season finishing with a pedestrian – by AP standards – 1,485 rushing yards. The reliance upon their run game is one-of-a-kind nowadays. Minnesota was one of only two teams (San Francisco) to have more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns in 2015. Lack of production in the pass game is what will hold back the Vikings from becoming an elite team in this league. The first-round selection of Laquon Treadwell gives Teddy Bridgewater a big body to target on underneath routes.
What to watch: Between the inner-division rivalry, two great football teams, and a brand new stadium, this might be one of the most entertaining games of the season. Green Bay is seeking revenge after being dethroned from the NFC North crown at Lambeau in Week 17 while Minnesota is looking to validate their reign as division champs and prove it was no fluke. On the field, Minnesota’s offensive line going against Green Bay’s pass rush is the most intriguing matchup. Last year, Green Bay totaled 9 sacks in two games on Bridgewater. It will be interesting to see if Minnesota’s emphasis placed on the offensive line in the offseason pays off and sufficiently protects their quarterback.
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 25th @ 12:00 p.m. (FOX) – Detroit Lions (H)
Key acquisitions: WR Marvin Jones, RB Stevan Ridley, G Geoff Schwartz, S Tavon Wilson, WR Andre Caldwell, LB Jon Bostic, OT Taylor Decker, DL A’Shawn Robinson, S Miles Killebrew
Key departures: WR Calvin Johnson, S Isa Abdul-Quddus, RB Joique Bell, CB Rashean Mathis
Overview: There aren’t enough towels to wipe off the sweat of every fan, player, and coach in the NFC North upon hearing Calvin Johnson’s surprising retirement at the age of 30. A once-in-a-generation talent at wide receiver, Johnson required the attention of multiple defenders on every single play and was a threat to score every single time he touched the ball. Now, all defenses have to worry about are Golden Tate and Marvin Jones on the outside. Detroit’s run game, which averaged 3.8 yards/carry, is not anywhere competent enough to compensate for the loss of a deep threat. The combination of Stevan Ridley, Ameer Abdullah, and Theo Riddick, however, make up a superior trio of receiving running backs that will cause problems for defenses in the middle of the field.
A staple of Detroit in recent years has been their vicious front line on defense. The addition of A’Shawn Robinson in the draft pairs him with Ziggy Ansah, an elite edge rusher, and Haloti Ngata, a massive run-stopper in the middle, upholding the nasty front line mystique. Deandre Levy sat out almost all of last season with a recurring hip injury but remains an elite linebacker that is one of the league’s best tacklers. The biggest weakness on Detroit’s defense is their secondary. The loss of Abdul-Quddus and depth at cornerback is concerning given Detroit did almost nothing to address the issue.
What to watch: What did the Detroit Lions winning at Lambeau Field, Silence of the Lambs, and Michael Jackson’s “Black or White” have in common? Prior to last season, they all happened in 1991. Detroit won a football game in Green Bay for the first time in 24 years when Mason Crosby shanked a game-winning field goal. This game will mark the first of four straight home games and also gives Green Bay an opportunity to start another 24-year long win streak against their division rival.
Aaron Rodgers does not forget things very easily, and I guarantee he hasn’t forgotten last season’s loss at home. As long as the offensive line holds up, expect the Aaron Rodgers aerial attack to be at an all-time high in this game. On defense, this will be a solid pass coverage test for the inside linebackers as they will be responsible for the shifty running backs out of the backfield.
Week 4: Bye Week
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 9th @ 7:30 p.m. (NBC) – New York Giants (H)
Key acquisitions: DE Olivier Vernon, CB Janoris Jenkins, DT Damon Harrison, LB Keenan Robinson, CB Eli Apple , WR Sterling Shepard, RB Paul Perkins
Key departures: DE Robert Ayers, G Geoff Schwartz, WR Rueben Randle, CB Prine Amukamara, DT Cullen Jenkins, S Brandon Meriweather, S Craig Dahl
Overview: The Odell Beckham, Jr. Show comes to Lambeau and brings the primetime lights with him. Beckham is still awaiting for his sidekick, Victor Cruz, to return to the field and give Eli Manning another threat on the outside. Cruz, sadly, hasn’t seen the field since October of 2014 after tearing his patellar tendon in his right knee and then missing all of last season with a calf injury. The selection of Sterling Shepard in the second round hopes to fill the vacancy at Cruz’s spot. Paul Perkins joins an exceptional, diverse group of running backs – Shane Vereen, Rashad Jennings, and Andrew Williams – who are looking for their first 1,000 yard rusher since 2012.
New York signed Olivier Vernon, a highly sought-after free agent, to a 5 year, $85 million contract ($52.5 million guaranteed). Only time will tell whether he will live up to his contract, but the Giants hooked the biggest fish in the water. Vernon joins Jason Pierre-Paul and newly-signed Damon Harrison on a revamped defensive line that should register a high amount of sacks. Their weakness lies in the linebacker position, where no one was graded higher than a 67/100 on ProFootballFocus. The Giants surprised everyone by taking cornerback Eli Apple with the 10th pick, but it was a position that needed to be addressed, even after the signing of Janoris Jenkins.
What to watch: Covering Odell Beckham has never been an easy task and the addition of Shepard won’t make it any easier. Beckham’s ability to line up in the slot or on the outside makes him such a difficult matchup. Dom Capers will have to get creative with his coverage schemes to ensure his defense isn’t getting burned, especially considering how much he loves to blitz. Sam Shields, Quinten Rollins, and Damarious Randall are all capable man coverage corners but will have their hands full containing Beckham.
Image courtesy of Packers.com