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Six notes from the first round of the NBA Playoffs

The first round of the NBA Playoffs are in full swing with the Cavs and Spurs already onto the second round following sweeps. Here are the top six things that have caught my eye.

  1. Stephen Curry and Chris Paul’s health

Curry missed both Games 2 & 3 of the Warriors’ first round matchup against the Rockets due to an ankle injury, finally returning in Game 4, only to sprain his knee at the end of the first half. This is bad news for the defending champions. The news broke yesterday that he will not be re-evaluated for at least two weeks.

The Warriors were able to escape the regular season without any type of prolonged injuries to any of their main three guys: Curry, Green, and Thompson, which was instrumental in them winning a record 73 games. However, make no mistake – Curry is the MVP for a reason and without him, their championship aspirations are in jeopardy.

Luckily for them, they are currently up 3-1 and if they can close out Houston at Oracle Arena in Game 5, they’ll have some time to rest up, as the Clippers and Blazers have split the first four games, so far.

Speaking of the Clippers, last night in Game 4, Chris Paul fractured his shooting hand. The initial prognosis is that he will miss anywhere from three to six weeks. Realistically, that timeline is going to lean more towards the latter end.

This is going to put the onus on Blake Griffin, a player who missed months during the regular season because he broke his hand punching a team manager, and since his return, just hasn’t been the player we are accustomed to seeing. In last year’s first round Blake Griffin was arguably the best player in the playoffs, helping knock off the defending champion Spurs in an incredible seven game series. He is going to have to somehow reach the same level, not only to potentially upset the Warriors in the second round, but also just to survive this opening round against the Blazers.

   2. Frank the Tank

UW’s prodigal son, Frank Kaminsky is in the playoffs and was instrumental in Charlotte’s first playoff win in over a decade. While his Game 3 performance is all anyone can talk about, Kaminsky is the lone Hornet who had a positive +/- in the first three games, going +23 during his time on the court, until completely dropping the ball in Game 4. While the Hornets still won the game, Kaminsky was absolutely atrocious. He went -16 and scored just 4 points. What was most troubling was his lack of ability to impact the game in ways other than scoring, only managing to grab 4 rebounds.

With Chris Bosh out, Miami has been forced to play small-ball, and while Luol Deng started out hot matched up against Kaminsky at the 4-spot in Game 3, Kaminsky started really finding his post-up game in the third quarter during an 18-0 Hornets run. While Kaminsky has the skills to one day develop into a stretch-5, he should shift his attention towards playing with his back to the basket for this series. Inexplicably, Erik Spoelstra had Dwyane Wade guarding Kaminsky at the start of the second half, and Frank made the Heat pay.

Game 4 was a totally different story. Kaminsky missed 4 of 5 of his shots, and just couldn’t get into a rhythm. Now that the series is a best of 3, Charlotte will need Kaminsky to demonstrate his versatility by posting up, spreading the floor, and also using his size advantage to dominate the glass.

If Kaminsky can give them even a moderate level of production, Charlotte should have a good chance at pulling the upset, especially now that Heat’s offense has cooled off.

   3. Toronto’s Tiny Dinos

In the Raptors’ two wins this series, their starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have combined for 70 points! In their losses? Only a putrid 45.

After getting knocked out in the first round the last two years, Lowry decided he needed to lose weight. His secret? Smaller portions. Lowry is averaging nearly 15 shots a game through the first four games, but is shooting a dismal 32% from the field. The only thing worse is his embarrassing mark from beyond the arc, where he is shooting 18.5% despite averaging almost seven three-point attempts per game. Lowry might need to consider smaller portions of shooting if he wants to break the Raptors playoff curse.

As for DeRozan, his play has made it seem like he’s already signed with the Lakers, where his 29.6% mark from the field might be considered acceptable. Given the way he is playing, some may infer that he’s just trying to speed up his departure from Toronto by bowing out of the playoffs as soon as possible. Miraculously, Toronto is tied 2-2 with the Pacers and have a best of three with two of the games in Toronto. Toronto’s All-Star backcourt might want to remember how to play basketball if they have any hope of making it out of the first round.

   4. No stars, no rings

When LeBron James wrote a letter to the city of Cleveland through Sports Illustrated announcing his return, the entire league was abuzz. That only increased exponentially following the trade that netted them Kevin Love. Many experts thought Cleveland was the unquestioned favorite to win the title and that their new Big 3 would be an offensive juggernaut of a historic caliber. Unfortunately, this season that description only really fit the Warriors, the team that beat Cleveland in the Finals last year. Cleveland’s Big 3 often seemed out of sorts, with Kevin Love looking like an especially poor fit. This led to the infamous passive aggressiveness of LeBron James on social media, and in large part to the firing of head coach David Blatt.

However, in a first round sweep of the Pistons the Cavaliers are finally starting to look like the team everyone envisioned in the summer of 2014. Despite a fairly competitive series, Cleveland has looked impressive most of all because of the play of their three superstars. Irving in particular lit up the Pistons averaging 27.5 points/game, while shooting a blistering 47% from beyond the arc. Tyronn Lue also finally played a lineup featuring Love at center nearly 95% of the time and the move was an effective one, with Love really spacing out the floor. Love made nine 3’s during the series with every single one being off an assist, indicating great ball movement.

As for LeBron, well he was LeBron. While his points per game at 22.8 is far below his playoff average of 28.1, he is shooting the ball significantly better than last year’s playoffs up 7% and far more in line with his career average.

All season, Cleveland has been considered the favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference, and while their play in the first round has been very encouraging for Cavaliers fans, ultimately it is championship or bust. They’ll need their stars to carry them to the promised land, and with the Warriors in flux because of Curry’s injury, this is as good a time as any for LeBron and company to step it up a notch.

   5. The Return of PG-13

After missing much of last year due to a gruesome leg injury while playing for USA Basketball, Paul George’s return to the playoffs reminded everyone why he was mentioned in the same sentence as players like LeBron James and Kevin Durant. He has been nothing short of a superstar in the first four games against the Raptors.

While his third quarter scoring explosion in Game 1 was the most covered, George has also been playing phenomenal defense, essentially making an All-Star like DeRozan a non-factor. George’s efficiency rating is 26.4, up 10 points from when he took LeBron’s Heat to seven games in the conference finals a few years ago!

In my first round predictions, I picked the Raptors in five, giving the Pacers a token win because of how much respect I have for George. Clearly, I wasn’t giving him enough, as the Pacers have already won twice, and are primed for the rare 7-2 upset. If Indiana does pull it off, they could be a very dangerous second round team, as Charlotte has no player the caliber of George and Miami no longer has LeBron to foil George.

   6. Westbrook is a superstar

Russell Westbrook is on another level right now. For years, he was labeled selfish and a ball-hog who had very questionable shot selection. This year, he turned into a juggernaut, who impacted the game at every level, marked by his absurd number of triple-doubles, but it seems that the one thing he’s hellbent on (aside from winning) is being a playmaker. Apparently, that isn’t enough for Mark Cuban, who thinks Westbrook is only an All-Star, but not a superstar, but as Kevin Durant, so eloquently put it, “He’s an idiot. Next question.”

The numbers back up Durant.

Westbrook’s 11.2 assists/game are a playoff career high for him, but what is even more incredible is that while he’s on the floor, he’s assisting on 54% of his teammates’ field goals! He’s doing this, while still averaging 26 points/game and shooting 38% from beyond the arc.

With a matchup with Kawhi Leonard and the Spurs on the horizon, Westbrook will have to continue the playmaking, as Kevin Durant will likely have a difficult time scoring on Leonard. An interesting wrinkle to watch for is how much more involved the Thunder’s big men are when Westbrook is in the game. In particular, Steven Adams and Enes Kanter have developed an elite rapport with him, especially in the pick and roll, which could become an alternate go-to play in crunch time, as opposed to just letting Durant and Westbrook isolations, as the Thunder have so often settled for in the past.

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