Reflection on Week 1
I hope everyone had a fantastic first week of watching the 2015 season of the NFL. It was the week of the tight end, as Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Jason Witten, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Tyler Eifert all had multiple receiving touchdowns at the position.
Starting this week, I will be evaluating my picks from the previous week utilizing completions (good advice), interceptions (wrong advice), and incompletions (irrelevant advice). This week, I went 16-15-5.
Let’s remember that I am human just like any other person who decides to make predictions about Fantasy Football, and you shouldn’t blame me ever for giving bad advice.
| Completions |
|
Incompletions |
| QB Andy Dalton (START) | QB Philip Rivers (SIT) | QB Sam Bradford (START) |
| QB Eli Manning (SIT) | QB Alex Smith (SIT) | QB Ryan Tannehill (START) |
| RB Joseph Randle (START) | RB Doug Martin (START) | RB Andre Ellington (START) |
| RB C.J. Anderson (SIT) | WR Vincent Jackson (START) | TE Richard Rodgers (START) |
| RB Frank Gore (SIT) | WR Nelson Agholor (START) | K Mason Crosby (START) |
| RB Isaiah Crowell (SIT) | WR Charles Johnson (START) | |
| WR Sammy Watkins (SIT) | WR Erick Decker (SIT) | |
| WR Torrey Smith (SIT) | TE Travis Kelce (SIT) | |
| TE Jordan Cameron (START) | TE Heath Miller (SIT) | |
| TE Jason Witten (START) | K Josh Brown (SIT) | |
| TE Coby Fleener (SIT) | K Josh Lambo (SIT) | |
| K Dan Bailey (START) | K Cairo Santos (SIT) | |
| K Matt Bryant (START) | D/ST Packers (START) | |
| D/ST Panthers (START) | D/ST Broncos (SIT) | |
| D/ST Jets (START) | D/ST Rams (SIT) | |
| D/ST Eagles (SIT) |
Week 2
Quarterbacks
Start
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals (@ Chicago Bears)
My fellow fantasy columnist Jacob Kupferman already talked about Palmer, but I also like him this week for his career against the Bears: 3-0, 120.3 passer rating, eight touchdowns, and one interception. Start him.
Eli Manning, New York Giants (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
As predicted, Eli Manning did not play well against the Cowboys last week; however, I expect him to recover against an Atlanta defense that I thought overachieved last week against the Eagles. Manning should be able to find Odell Beckham, Jr., who is much more talented than any of the Eagles’ receivers (apologies to Jordan Matthews).
Sleeper: Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (@ Cleveland Browns)
Sure, Mariota’s probably not going to have the same production he had against the Buccaneers against a better Browns defense, but Ryan Fitzpatrick still threw for almost 200 yards and two touchdowns against Cleveland last week. RYAN FITZPATRICK! I like Mariota again this week, but I would not start him over any of the guys in my top 15.
Sit
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (@ Minnesota Vikings)
Stafford does not have shaky numbers against the Vikings by any means with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions in 10 games against Minnesota. But, Stafford really struggled last week against a mid-tier passing defense in San Diego, and I see Minnesota playing much better this week than they did against San Francisco. There’s definitely a better guy to start out there than Stafford this week.
Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills (vs. New England Patriots)
In games Tom Brady has started against Buffalo, the Patriots are 23-3. The Bills are much improved, but Bill Belichick and the Patriots always find a way. I think LeSean McCoy will run the ball effectively (see below), but Taylor may be in for a long day against a much improved and healthy front seven from the Patriots.
Bust Potential: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (@ Cincinnati Bengals)
I know I was wrong about Rivers last week, but this Bengals defense is for real. Sure, they played against Oakland last week, but I still think Rivers has the potential to struggle on Sunday in Cincinnati. Rivers is 2-3 against Cincinnati in his career, and has thrown five interceptions in five games with only eight touchdowns. That’s not starter worthy, and there should be better options on your team.
Running Backs
Start
Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks (@ Green Bay Packers)
So the Packers lost their starting inside linebacker and run stopper in Sam Barrington for the season and the next man up Nate Palmer only has 24 career tackles? I’m riding Beast Mode all the way this week.
Darren Sproles, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
Sproles is back. Last week he ran the ball five times for 50 yards, and caught seven passes for 76 yards. Sam Bradford already has found comfort in dumping the ball off to Sproles, and I don’t see him slowing down this week. I’m starting him in my PPR league this week.
Sleeper: T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Miami Dolphins)
Last week, the Dolphins gave up the third most rushing yards last week in the NFL to the Washington Redskins. The Jaguars have a better offensive line than the Washington Football Team, and I think Yeldon could have a little bit of a coming out party. My only worry is that the Jaguars will fall behind early and have to throw the ball a lot, which is why I’m starting Sproles over Yeldon. If you have Yeldon though, I would start him over the likes of Isaiah Crowell, Bishop Sankey, and Ryan Mathews.
Sit
C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos (@ Kansas City Chiefs)
I don’t think the Broncos will have a healthy Anderson this week, so his carries will be limited if he even plays. Also, I believe the Broncos will be throwing the ball a lot after falling behind early to the Chiefs. Ronnie Hillman should be stashed on your bench if he’s available in your league.
DeAngelo Williams, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. San Francisco 49ers)
Williams more than filled in for Le’Veon Bell last Thursday against New England. The 49ers held Adrian Peterson to 31 yards on eight carries, and I expect their unit, led by the return of NaVorro Bowman, to stifle Williams and the Steelers’ Pouncey-less offensive line.
Bust Potential: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Detroit Lions)
I thought Peterson looked shaky last week against the 49ers, and the Lions still have DeAndre Levy and Haloti Ngata in the front seven to stop Peterson. He could definitely
have a bounce back week, which I expect him to, but don’t be too surprised if he doesn’t perform as well as you may like this week.
Wide Receivers
Start
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (@ Buffalo Bills)
Edelman in his last three games against the Bills: 25 receptions, 235 yards, and two touchdowns. Don’t be foolish and be scared of what happened to the Bills last week; you’re starting Edelman in what’s actually a favorable matchup for him due to his chemistry with Tom Brady.
Cole Beasley, Dallas Cowboys (@ Philadelphia Eagles)
Beasley is next man up in terms of targets after the Cowboys lost Dez Bryant for who knows how long. Terrance Williams will also get more value, but Beasley’s role as a slot receiver will become similar to Jason Witten’s role as a safety net for Tony Romo. This means more targets for Beasley, which will lead to more fantasy points.
Sleeper: Percy Harvin, Buffalo Bills (vs. New England Patriots)
If there’s one thing the Patriots always struggle against, it’s speedy receivers. Considering that the team has a very shaky secondary besides Devin McCourty, and I think Harvin could have a huge week. Harvin’s production last week is only encouraging as well against a tough Colts’ secondary.
Sit
Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
Cooper had a decent debut against the Bengals even after starter Derek Carr went down. Unfortunately, with Carr recovering from concussion protocol and backup Matt McGloin being Matt McGloin, I don’t like Cooper against the tough Ravens’ defense. I would rather start 30+ guys than Cooper this week.
Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver Broncos)
I don’t see Alex Smith succeeding this week and I feel similar about Maclin. The Broncos have a strong secondary and can get to the quarterback, and they still don’t have a receiver with a touchdown in over a season. Maclin will get his targets, but Travis Kelce is still a much safer play than Maclin this week against the Broncos.
Bust Potential: Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
In general, I would start a healthy Jeffery against any team. But, with a banged up Jeffery likely matched up against top-tier corner Patrick Peterson, I’m not too high on him this week. He did not play well nor played much against the Packers, and I don’t see much from him this week.
Tight Ends
Start
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers (vs. Houston Texans)
Olsen barely touched the ball last week, and only had one catch against the Jaguars. But, luckily, the Texans just gave up a huge game to Travis Kelce. In my opinion, Cam Newton is going to target Olsen a lot this week, and he should be worth your patience.
Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. San Francisco 49ers)
Miller had a strong performance last week after I doubted him. He helped out Ben Roethlisberger a lot down the stretch, and I think he will have a repeat performance against a 49ers’ defense that will be worrying a lot about Antonio Brown.
Sleeper: Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers (@ Pittsburgh Steelers)
Davis is still looking for his bounce back game to throw it back to a few years ago, and this could be the game. The Steelers simply could not stop Gronk last week, yielding three touchdowns to the Patriots’ beast. I think Davis could excel in this matchup, so if he’s on your bench already, you’ve made a good investment.
Sit
Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions (@ Minnesota Vikings)
Ebron scored last week, but he has been very inconsistent throughout his short career thus far. I think he was worth picking up on the waiver wire, but he should not be trusted as your starting tight end quite yet. The Vikings should play well this week and the only receiver I see doing well against their defense is Megatron.
Ladarius Green, San Diego Chargers (@ Cincinnati Bengals)
Green is a similar story to Ebron, but I would add that the Bengals only gave up five touchdowns to tight ends last year. Green lives more off touchdowns than yards and receptions, so I wouldn’t trust him again.
Bust Potential: Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. San Diego Chargers)
Eifert exploded in his first game back in over a year for the Bengals, but that was against the Raiders. The Chargers are an upgrade, and they only gave up three touchdowns to tight ends last year. You’ve been warned.
Kickers
Start
Justin Tucker, Baltimore Ravens (@ Oakland Raiders)
The Ravens are playing the Raiders, and they’re going to score some points. Even if you think their offense is bad, they can still move the ball on Oakland and get into field goal range.
Dan Carpenter, Buffalo Bills (vs. New England Patriots)
I think the Bills will move the ball with McCoy as I said above, but I don’t think they’re going to score many touchdowns. What’s that mean? Field goals.
Sleeper: Zach Hocker, New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
He had a nice debut against the Cardinals making four field goals. The Saints should put up major points this week considering the Titans scored 42 last week on Tampa Bay.
Sit
Brandon McManus, Denver Broncos (@ Kansas City Chiefs)
He kicked a lot of field goals last week in the altitude, but I don’t see McManus repeating last week in this low-scoring affair.
Nick Folk, New York Jets (@ Indianapolis Colts)
I expect the Colts to beat the Jets pretty bad this week, and Folk’s team will be coming from behind not looking for field goals.
Bust Potential: Steven Hauschka, Seattle Seahawks (@ Green Bay Packers)
The Seahawks will give the Packers a run for their money no question; however, I think Hauschka will miss a field goal or two down the stretch in a close game.
Defenses/Special Teams
Start
St. Louis Rams D/ST (@ Washington Redskins)
That front four against the Redskins’ below average offensive line and Kirk Cousins? St. Louis D/ST every time.
Miami Dolphins D/ST (@ Jacksonville Jaguars)
You’re playing the Jaguars? Okay, start.
Sleeper: Cleveland Browns D/ST (vs. Tennessee Titans)
I know I talked above about Mariota’s sleeper potential, but I see the Browns getting a defensive touchdown this week and quite possibly pounding the Titans for some reason. This is my hedge to the Mariota pick.
Sit
Buffalo Bills D/ST (vs. New England Patriots)
The Bills defense is better than year’s past and they have Rex Ryan. The Patriots will still find a way to put up 30 points, and you’ll regret starting Buffalo’s defense.
New York Jets D/ST (@ Indianapolis Colts)
The Colts are not going to get shut down again this week, especially not at home. The Jets defense is a risky start.
Bust Potential: Seattle Seahawks D/ST (@ Green Bay Packers)
You think Aaron Rodgers is motivated? He knows how much this game means for the team’s Super Bowl chances and team morale. The Seahawks D/ST could be doomed, especially without Kam Chancellor.
Sources
Beasley image
Pro-Football-Reference.com