Updated August 16, 12:05 AM: Brewers’ minor leaguer David Denson makes MLB history by coming out publicly as gay. 

Sometimes, the numbers don’t pack the same punch as a moving appeal to social justice. Five days ago, the conservative Justice Kennedy’s written opinion of the court in Obergefell vs. Hodges didn’t discuss the statistical realities of inequalities based on sexual orientation. He simply appealed to the two fundamental principles of liberty and equality. If I break down the decision on gay marriage into strictly mathematical terms, without touching on these ideals that constitute the backbone of the court’s decision, I would be cheapening the humanitarian triumph that occurred last week. The Supreme Court’s decision is nothing short of victory for the two basic ideals of freedom and egalitarianism.

So, to begin crafting a framework for discussing the future of homosexual athletes in the American sports landscape, we should explore whether or not LGBT athletes feel free to express their identity, and whether or not they are equally represented. In these respects, the data can help construct a storyline that tells us to what extent homophobia exists in the American sports paradigm.

The sobering truth, as evidenced by a survey of more than 2,000 American athletes, provides evidence that American sports culture still lags behind most English-speaking nations in terms of our acceptance of homosexual athletes.

Five out of every six homosexual male athletes are “keeping their sexuality secret from all or part of their teammates.” It is not that the freedom to come out doesn’t exist, but that a culture of intolerance remains the norm: 84% of all American athletes said that they have witnessed homophobia in sports, and half have experienced verbal or physical abuse first-hand. So in measuring the persistence of homophobia within the U.S. sports landscape, we should assess not only inequalities in participation, but also the pervasive fears that threaten liberties and remain a permanent fixture in American sports.

By understanding the weight of statistics, we can interpret the fact that there is not a single openly gay male athlete on a roster in one of the four major American sports and realize that this figure misrepresents the population at large (Robbie Rogers of the MLS’s LA Galaxy excluded). It is extremely likely that there are several athletes in each major American sport that are currently keeping their sexual identity a secret. So will the landmark decision have repercussions on the American sports landscape and lead to an increase of LGBT athletes who are open about their identity?

Justice Kennedy begins the court’s opinion by immediately appealing to liberty:

“The Constitution promises liberty to all within its reach, a liberty that includes certain specific rights that allow persons, within a lawful realm, to define and express their identity.” 

Just as Justice Kennedy begins with a plea for liberty, so too will the evolution of America’s sports culture begin with liberating athletes so that they feel free ‘to define and express their identity without fearing negative repercussions.

Kennedy’s entire opinion builds towards the conclusion that liberty is the fundamental pillar on which the true goal, that of equality, sits upon. The closing lines of the Court’s opinion reads as follows:

“They (the LGBT community) ask for equal dignity in the eyes of the law. The constitution grants them this right.”

In the rest of this article, I’ll build towards a unique prediction by answering the following questions.

On Intolerance: Is homophobia still a major issue within American sports culture?

On Liberty: Will the Supreme Court’s decision lead to more athletes feeling free to be open about their sexual orientation?

On Equality: Will the Supreme Court’s decision lead to equal representation for LGBT athletes in professional American sports?

Homophobia Persists, Especially in Men’s Sports: What the Data Shows

 

The World Cup is a prime example of the chasm of acceptance of homosexuality that exists between men’s and women’s sports.” Currently, the US Women’s National Team is being represented by twenty-three athletes, three of whom are openly lesbian: Abby Wambach, Megan Rapinoe and Ali Krieger. Each of these three women start, and Jillian Ellis, the US National Team’s head coach, is also homosexual.

In total, there are 15 athletes and two coaches who participated in this summer’s Women’s World Cup who are openly lesbian. Each of the 24 teams were allotted 23 roster spots, meaning that 576 players and coaches took part in the global tournament. This means that 3% of the most elite competitors in global women’s soccer are openly lesbian, which is roughly representative of the population average of homosexual females.

Of the 768 male players and coaches who participated in the 2014 FIFA World Cup, not a single one was openly gay.

The data tells us that there are two major reasons that this figure doesn’t represent the population average of approximately 3% (which would equate to about 23 World Cup players or coaches being gay). Gay athletes currently playing professional sports not only fear backlash, but young homosexual athletes also participate at low rates because they fear verbal and physical abuse.

Both of these reasons help explain why homophobia remains ingrained in sports culture. The data paints a shameful picture. 78% of all those surveyed said that they thought that youth sports were not safe for people in the LGBT community. An additional 45% of gay male athletes believed that coaches or officials would discriminate against them if they were open about their sexuality.

These polls are not merely based on beliefs, but rather, on first-hand experience: 50% of these male athletes reported experiencing homophobia first-hand, and 29% have received verbal threats of physical harm. A shocking rate of one in five male homosexual athletes have been physically assaulted.

These statistics should make abundantly clear the current state of sports culture in America. Simply put, it is a culture heavily rooted in homophobia. Often, it is fear of emotional and even physical abuse that keeps gay athletes from participating at equal rates as heterosexuals.

The numbers suggest homophobia is not merely an isolated phenomenon within American sports, but rather an ingrained fixture of the athletic ethos.

So will the Supreme Court’s decision to ensure the legalization of gay marriage across the nation help diminish homophobia in American sports? How long will it take for a cultural shift to truly take place?

 

On Liberty: The Immediate Impact of Marriage Equality

 

The Supreme Court’s affirmation of the liberty to marry an individual of the same sex is not in itself an isolated indicator of the evolution of LGBT acceptance. Rather, the decision arrives on the coat tails of steadily increasing public support for gay marriage, with favorability flipping in favor of marriage liberty in the past twenty years.

The clear shift in public opinion alongside the written statements of three American male athletes who came out in the past year (Michael Sam, Jason Collins, and Rogers) may very well have pushed the tide of “coming out” past the tipping point. In The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell explains how several social phenomena follow the “tipping point” pattern, that is, they have slow initial expansion and then suddenly undergo rapid growth.

This is what the tipping point concept would mean within this context:: there will likely be a rapid increase in the number of current professional athletes who come out in the next two years. In fact, it might resemble the rapid growth of state-by-state acceptance of gay marriage, as detailed by fivethirtyeight.com.

While only three professional American male athletes have come out in the past five years (an aspiring NFL player, a former NBA player, and a current MLS player), we should expect this figure to increase dramatically in the near future. Based on the data that says five out of six athletes keep their sexual identity partially hidden, we can expect that the recent victory for LGBT rights will encourage a larger portion of athletes to be open about their sexual orientation. It shouldn’t be surprising that Michael Sam claims there are other gay athletes currently playing in the NFL.

At this moment, there is not a single man currently employed as a professional athlete in one of the “four major sports” (football, basketball, baseball, and hockey) who is openly gay. Yet, within the rest of this decade, we should expect to see several openly gay athletes in each professional American sport. The Supreme Court’s decision, which asserts the public’s sentiment of acceptance, will likely cause a tipping point of athletes who come out over the next few years.

On Equality: The Long-Term Impact

When we think about who is likely to be coming out in the years to come, we should understand the demographics of gay marriage favorability. The overwhelming majority of athletes still playing professional sports are part of the Millennial generation (born after 1980). 73% of people 18-35 years old (Millennials) support gay marriage. In fact, there is a direct relationship between age and gay marriage support.

Gay Marriage Favorability By Age
Age	18-34	35-50	51-69	70-88
% In Favor	73	59	45	39

What this shows is that support for marriage equality steadily increases with each subsequent generation. It should be clear that the generation of current kids (3-17 year olds) will exceed the 73% favorability rate that represents the Millenial generation. Support for marriage equality is clearly increasing as a result of younger generations embracing equality, as referred to in the closing statement of the Supreme Court’s decision.

The problem with enabling long-term equality for homosexual athletes s tied to overhauling existing power structures in youth sports. The problem is, if we hope to fully eradicate homophobia in the youth ranks and subsequently ensure equality in the professional ranks, a major ingredient for remedying the situation will be the passing of time. This is a result of older generations being much less receptive to the LGBT community, as illustrated in the chart above.

So what do Baby Boomers have to do with youth sports?

Gay youth in the USA were the most likely (relative to other countries) to say they hid their sexuality because of a fear of discrimination from coaches and officials (from Out on the Fields Press Release) 

As the data suggests, it is often a fear of backlash from elders rather than peers that drives homosexual athletes away from youth competition. While the Supreme Court’s decision may have encouraged a tipping point of current athletes to come out as gay, the evolution towards full equality will likely take a slow yet linear course towards full acceptance. This will only occur once coaches and officials, who constitute the older generations, are more vocally supportive of equality.

 

The Future: What We Can Do

Amidst the most influential court decisions in American history, yesterday’s Supreme Court ruling will likely be taught in history classes within the next few years. I expect Justice Kennedy’s written statement regarding the assurance of liberty and equality will also be studied for decades to come.

On a micro scale, the survey of American athletes suggests three key focal points for improving LGBT acceptance in the world of sports.

1. Start early with schools, coaches, and parents, taking homophobia and bullying seriously in sporting environments.
2. National sporting organizations need to adopt and promote clear anti-homophobia and LGBT inclusion policies for professional and amateur players.
3. More LGBT professional sports stars need to come out of the closet to set an example.

May the court’s decision embolden the public sentiment of ensuring equality for those in the LGBT community, and help reverse the lasting remnants of homophobia within American sports culture. In turn, this will hopefully lead to an immediate increase in the number of sports stars coming out, and will help us confront the realities of homophobia head on. It is not only time that will tell, but also the voices of a unified community – the entire sports community – to help ensure that true equality becomes the norm.