Category: Advanced Statistics/Saber-metrics

lebron-james-and-stephen-curry

Curry or James? The Statistical Breakdown for NBA Playoffs MVP

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Most of us are suckers for superstars like Stephen Curry and LeBron James.

It just so happens that the upcoming era of the NBA might very well be known as the age of superstars. Just look at this past year, where the MVP race was filled to the brim with six legitimate contenders vying for the title.

Age Name 1st place 2nd Place 3rd 4th 5th Total Points
27 Stephen Curry, Golden State 100 26 3 — 1 1,198
25 James Harden, Houston 25 87 13 4 — 936
30 LeBron James, Cleveland 5 12 62 32 12 552
26 Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City — 5 33 41 29 352
22 Anthony Davis, New Orleans — — 9 35 53 203
29 Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers — — 10 15 29 124

One study of NBA Hall of Famers and current superstars determined that MVP caliber players, on average, peak at 27 years old (and two months). Its fitting that this year’s MVP, Stephen Curry, was awarded the NBA MVP award one and a half months after his twenty-seventh birthday.

When accounting for birth month, the average age of this year’s top six vote recipients was also twenty-seven.

As the voting suggests, the decision was far from set in stone. Many members of the media thought that Harden deserved MVP despite Golden State’s dominance throughout the year, including the Sconnie Sports Talk NBA MVP analysis.

The race (that I’ve created) for NBA playoffs MVP is even tighter.

Statistically Speaking, How Should We Determine Who’s the Playoff MVP in 2015?

 

It’s impossible to create a statistic that incorporates every single aspect of a player’s game into one single number. Yet, this is where the future of data-driven analysis is headed, and unsurprinsingly, the best measure that correlates with being voted MVP is based on Value Added.

VA: Value Added – the estimated number of points a player adds to a team’s season total above what a ‘replacement player’ (for instance, the 12th man on the roster) would produce. The Value Added equation factors in everything from minutes played, turnovers, assists, personal fouls, shooting percentage and everything in between. Value added is based on John Holinger’s PER formula, which is a comprehensive equation that weights more than a dozen variables and produces a number that signifies a player’s relative value.

It makes sense that Value Added is a phenomomenal indicator for being crowned MVP.

The Earned Win Average, or EWA = Value added / 30, and is a measurement of how many games a team won based on having a given player vs. a replacement player. Usually, the person with the highest EWA has been crowned MVP: in the past six years, the EWA measure has predicted the MVP winner five of six times. This year, Harden had the regular season advantage over Curry in terms of Earned Win Average. LeBron James finished sixth in regular season EWA.

James has an extremely slight edge in terms of playoff EWA: 5.5 to Curry’s 4.9, though this tiny difference could easily change in a matter of two or three additional games. Despite James’ small advantage in this metric, Curry fans should feel his case for NBA Playoffs MVP is strong.

The Case for Curry

 

Here’s what the data says about Curry’s dominance over LeBron this postseason.

Relative to James, Curry has a sizeable advantage in terms of true shooting percentage, which is a measure similar to a baseball player’s slugging percentage.

Essentially, it measure a player’s shooting percentage weighted according to the proportion of three pointers and free throws they’re shooting.

Curry’s true shooting Percentage is .601, whereas James’ is .487.

True Shooting Percentage = Total points / [(FGA + (0.44 x FTA)]

The TS% equation simply states that the true shooting percentage weights a two-pointer as two in the numerator, and a three pointer as three. It makes sense that if we’re measuring efficiency, we should combine each facet of their game. If two players each have a .500 field goal percentage, and one player shoots all threes and the other shoots all twos, the first player is quite obviously the more efficient player.

In the previous example, they would be exactly 50% more efficient. In the case of Stephen vs. LeBron, Curry has been a 23.4% more efficient shooting the ball.

True shooting percentage is an excellent measure of a player’s shooting value, just as slugging percentage (which weights a double twice as much as a single and so forth) measures a hitter’s value in the batter’s box.

A final point for Curry fans to harp on is the fact that Golden State’s road has been much more difficult than LeBron and Cleveland’s postseason journey to the finals has been. Just look at the comparisons between their opposing teams’ regular season win totals, and the EWA’s of their best player.

Stephen Curry’s Playoff Opponents
Opposing Team: Wins Opposing Team’s Best Player Best Player’s EWA
45 Anthony Davis 23.7
55 Marc Gasol 14.9
56 James Harden 24.1
52 Average 20.9
LeBron James’ Playoff Opponents
Opposing Team: Wins Opposing Team’s Best Player Best Player’s EWA
60 Isaiah Thomas 8.3
46 Pau Gasol 15.0
40 Al Horford 12.5
48.7 Average 11.9

The Curry defense rests.

Where Curry’s Award would Place him in the History Books

In the past twenty five years, the regular season MVP went on to win the finals MVP award nine times. On four of these occasions, the player happened to be named Michael Jordan.

In the past forty years, a player has won his first MVP and his first Finals MVP award in the same year only three times. We can consider these rare seasons as true breakout years, as they exemplify players blossoming into not merely a consistent leader throughout the regular season, but as a clutch and unwavering rock amidst the raging ocean of playoff basketball.

Players with True Breakout Years
Age (Entering Playoffs ) Player 1st MVP 1st Finals MVP Championships Finals MVP Age (During Most Productive Year)
27 Larry Bird 1984 1984 3 2 30.9
29 Hakeem Olajuwon 1994 1994 2 2 30.1
27 Shaquille O’Neal 2000 2000 4 3 26.8
27 Stephen Curry 2015 ? ? ? ?

Note that each of these true breakout players went on to win the NBA Finals MVP the very next year. Two of those times, the player was 27 years old, which as I mentioned earlier, is the average peak-age of an NBA career.

Here’s why this is great for Curry: these players didn’t simply regress into the comforting class of , but rather, they went on to solidify themselves as some of the few greatest players of all-time.

So even though the data says that the average NBA All-Star peaks at twenty-seven, don’t expect the twenty-seven year-old Curry to fade in the years to come, especially if Golden State manages to secure the title this year.

The Case for King James

 

If you prefer the opposite side of the argument, LeBron lovers could also make a strong, statistically-based case for LeBron as Playoffs MVP. You can bring up the fact that LeBron has the advantage in Earned Win Average throughout the playoffs this year, which as I mentioned previously, is the single best indicator of a player’s value.

The primary reason that LeBron edges Curry in this measure is a direct result of James’ far superior abilities on the boards: LeBron’s rebound rate, or the percentage of missed shots that a player rebounds, is more than double that of Curry’s (14.2% vs. 6.8%).

Additionally, James supporting cast has been much weaker than Curry’s. With Kyrie Irving sidelined for the remainder of the playoffs, Batman is left without his Robin, whereas Curry has fellow All-Star Klay Thompson to help bear the load of carrying his team. It’s not just one sidekick that separates the Warriors and Cavaliers: The Earned Win Average’s of Golden State’s other four starters during this playoffs is more than double that of Cleveland’s other four.

Warriors Playoff EWA Playoff EWA Cavaliers
Draymond Green 2.1 1.7 Timofey Mozgov
Klay Thompson 1.9 1.3 Tristan Thompson
Andre Iguodala 1.2 0.2 Iman Shumpert
Harrison Barnes 0.5 -0.5 Matthew Dellavedova
5.7 2.7

 

Where LeBron’s Award Would Place Him in the History Books

 

The list of players who have thrice won an MVP award in the same year that they won an NBA Finals MVP award is short: Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, and Shaquille O’Neal. LeBron would be the fourth.

What would be the most incredible part about this year’s performance though would be LeBron’s obvious lack of additional star power. Shaq had Kobe, Jordan had Pippen, and Bird had Kevin McHale, all Hall of Famers.

LeBron certainly had Hall of Fame support in Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, but his pursuit of this year’s title is completely on his shoulders in the absence of Irving and Love. Am I simply underestimating Timofey Mozgov or Matthew Dellevedova’s future Hall of Fame status, or is LeBron’s lack of a legitimate sidekick as incredible as it seems?

The Winner is…

From a completely objective point of view, meaning if we only consider unbiased statistical analysis, determining a playoff MVP is too close to call. With at least two games left in the playoffs, the race is neck-and-neck.

In terms of LeBron and Steph’s abilities to distribute the ball, the two are nearly identical. The two prospective MVP’s each have an assist ratio (the percentage of possessions that end in assists) between 19-20%. The two both play more than eighty percent of each game. Curry has proven his ability to come through down the stretch of a game, and LeBron certainly knows how to hit a buzzer beater. There is no “clutch factor” statistic, but if there were, I’m sure these players would rank among the top in the league.

In determining a victor, I know only three things for certain: The Finals MVP will be Curry or James (sorry Delly, you’ll have to settle for most vibrant player), whichever team wins the title will determine the MVP of the playoffs, and the winner will establish their legacy among the all-time greatest NBA players.

 

moneyball

A Moneyball Approach: Being a Student of Sports by Adam Ziv-el

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McCoy: “Mr. Spock, remind me to tell you that I’m sick and tired of your logic.

Spock: “That is a most illogical attitude.”

 

What is Utility?

IF you believe that this article might improve your understanding of sports, OR IF you believe you might enjoy this article, THEN you will continue to read this article.

IF you do not believe this article will help you think about your approach to sports, AND IF you do not think you will enjoy this article, THEN goodbye.

By continuing to read this article, you have made a prediction about your expected utility, which can be thought of as the value that this article will give you. The theory of utility maximization simply states that if you are sane, then you are acting in order to maximize utility.

I’ll start with simple examples of how utility maximization functions as the backbone of strategy in sports and I’ll work my way up to Moneyball.

Consider fantasy football. You are probably aware of the fact that drafting a quarterback is more important than drafting a kicker (unless you’re Taco from The League). This is another way of stating that a fantasy quarterback’s utility is greater than a fantasy kicker’s utility. Simple.

From an NFL team’s perspective, the same utility evaluation is true: every NFL team agrees that the quarterback has more utility than a kicker. The evidence is clear: team’s are paying their starting kickers less than one tenth of the money that they pay their starting quarterbacks.

So, from a sports team’s perspective, a contract represents the expected utility that a player will provide. Capeesh?

If you answered capeesh, then you understand the logic of Moneyball.

According to the moneyball approach, a player can be assigned a numerical “value”, or utility, based on their past statistics. Take a free agent in baseball, whose statistics from last year are being used to structure this coming year’s contract. Each home run he hit counts for X point of utility, his on base percentage counts for Y points of utility, and so on. The greater the expected utility, the more money that player is worth to a team.

So IF you add up all of a player’s value based on a mathematical model, (say: 30 homeruns = 2 units of utility, .350 O.B.P counts for three units of utility, and so forth), then you can arrive at the overall utility evaluation of a player.

The next step is factoring in the limits of your budget. In both economics and sports management, the amount of money you have (your budget) is your constraint. THE PRIMARY GOAL of a general manager in sports is to maximize your roster’s utility. THIS IS THE FOUNDATION OF DAILY FANTASY GAMES: how do you maximize your expected utility given your budget.

The hard part is predicting which variables have the most influence on utility. For instance, investment firms are continuously creating new metrics to measure the value of stock prices. They evolved from the days of simple PE ratios. Creating new equations that assess the value of stock prices is the section of economic theory that truly sparks creativity. The same is true for creating new equations that assess utility in sports.

“Even if it the theory of utility maximization helps some rich pricks predict economic events, it can’t help people predict sports” says the skeptic. Here’s why this skeptic, for lack of a better euphemism, is illogical and why paralleling economics and sports is logical.

When you invest in the stock market, you have a clear goal: to make money. In economics, the common goal of economic players is profit. To be considered rational in an economic sense, means that you want to increase your profit.

This is the foundation of utility maximization. It’s pretty straightforward and directly parallels sports.

When you invest your time or money into a sports team, whether you are watching the Packers or your players on your fantasy team, you want your team to win. In sports, the common goal of economic players is winning championships (just as profit was the goal in economics). To be considered rational in a sports sense, means that you want your team to win the game.

Imagine that you can invest in only one stock. Stock A has expected annual returns of 50%, and stock B has expected annual returns of 55%. If we were impatient and only had researched stock A, we might automatically seek to capture the seemingly immense utility. YET, stock A is not a good investment relative to the market.

When we consider a player’s value, or their utility, we should always think of their value relative to the utility of other players. Even though Aaron Rodgers is the reigning MVP of the NFL, and has consistently been one of the five best quarterbacks in the league for the past half dozen seasons, he WILL NOT be the first pick in many fantasy football drafts. This is because results have shown that running backs are relatively more important.

Capturing relative value arises when you can identify a hidden trend.

At heart of making a quality prediction is to use a measure that other people are overlooking. During the original Moneyball years for instance, statisticians in the Oakland A’s organization found that on base percentage is more indicative of success compared to batting average.

The key to identifying successful variables that have predictive validity (maybe running backs have the most fantasy football utility when their quarterback is awful) is to look at past results. Were the best running backs from last year paired with quarterbacks with low total QBR’s or was your hypothesis incorrect? Though many people see hypothesis testing as a mundane affair, it is the only tangible evidence to help ourselves identify our own patterns of bias.

From a fantasy perspective, the most significant take away is this: search for a variable that predicts utility THAT IS BEING OVERLOOKED by your competitors. Relative to their competition, the Oakland Athletics (pioneers of moneyball) realized that O.B.P wasn’t being weighted correctly by other MLB teams. The A’s identified a variable that RELATIVELY increased their utility. Perhaps other players in your fantasy are RELATIVELY undervaluing tight ends. The only way to know for sure is to look to the past, or are relatively overvaluing players on the Packers.

The point is that to become the best competitive sports fan, or to make the most accurate projections, utilizing the scientific method is crucial. This means not only hypothesis building, but hypothesis testing.

The point of this article is not to tell you exactly how to predict, but rather, is a guidebook for understanding how to make scientific and comprehensive predictions about your fantasy sports team, daily fantasy sports bets, and such. I want you to realize that we often learn the most from unsuccessful predictions, and can often learn the most from looking at historical data.

IF you play any fantasy sports, or fill out March Madness brackets, or bet on sports, THEN you engage in activities called fan sports. This just means that your utility as a fan fluctuates based on how successful your predictions are. When your team wins, or when your predictions are successful, it’s more enjoyable than the alternative.

Engaging in fan sports simply means that YOU THE INDIVIDUAL CAN WIN something, whether it be pride that you won a fantasy football league or a fifty-dollar sum from winning a daily fantasy league. I want to increase your utility. I want to help you win more often.

So IF you engage in fan sports, THEN increasing your knowledge is the key to winning more often, which is the same as increasing utility.

In fact, we can begin by realizing that most decisions that you make in your life attempt to answer the question “which option will maximize my utility,” whether it is the decision to eat or forego breakfast, or the decision to spend or invest money, your assessment is based on what you expect to gain in the future. Your current decision is inherently tied to the predictions you make, which in turn determines your utility.

Summary of how to enjoy sports to the fullest: Make many predictions about which variables are relevant (ex. Rookies are undervalued by people in my fantasy league), test your predictions by assessing past information (look at how top rated rookies performed in past years), and study the results of your experiments (is there objective proof that supports my hypothesis?). That’s a rational and scientific approach to winning.

For the Fan who Enjoys using their Mind

 

Some people despise thinking.

For instance, Buzzfeed’s sports writing team specifically tailors its content to people who believe that they derive utility by reading mindless articles about a string of facts that are thrown together and happen to land on the same page. My guess is that most people read buzzfeed articles in the same way that they daydream: purely as a means to distract themselves.

“21 Reasons Steph And Ayesha Curry Should Be Your Relationship Goals”

What if you happen to derive utility from thinking though, and actually find it more enjoyable to read about well thought out opinions rather than celebrity gossip or copy and pasted Wikipedia facts?

If you enjoy articles about Wisconsin sports for instance, then if you are a rational person who wants to maximize your utility, you should find a website that dedicates all of its resources to producing daily content tailored to your unique interests as a Wisconsinite sports fan. That’s a rational decision that will fulfill your goal. That’s sconniesportstalk.com.

Other than the irrelevant fact that I write for this website, this is the reason that I check sconniesports.com several times each day: it’s content that is taiolored to my “utility equation”. It’s op-eds from people who share my passion for sports journalism and who differ in their areas of expertise. It’s specialization. By keeping sconniesportstalk.com as a tab that I check daily, I am investing in my knowledge of sports rather than spending (wasting) time distracting myself. Shameless promotion? Perhaps. Logical extension of this article? Most definitely.

We’ve only laid the Foundation: Bias and Beyond

 

Here’s where it gets really interesting from a betting and fantasy sports perspective: when people aren’t behaving and predicting rationally, you can systematically exploit their bias. Is there a way to tell when someone is biased, meaning that their utility equation is not in line with a normal utility equation? My next article will explain how to beat your competition by understanding their biased, and thus irrational thought patterns.

The point of this string of articles is to explain three extremely important concepts of Economics, each of which help you become a more intelligible fan. I showed of how utility maximization relates to participating in fan sports. In the next article, I’ll explain how understanding the foundation of behavioral economics can improve your success with sports betting, and how Nash equilibrium and game theory can improve coaching strategy.

Bo Ryan’s Coaching Legacy

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Bo Ryan: Coach Wisconsin’s Legacy in the Era of Living Legends

Bo Ryan’s undervalued success has driven the Badgers’ program.
In an age of established basketball powerhouses, where a University’s prestige is highly correlated with NCAA tournament success, Bo Ryan is exceeding expectations at an incredible rate. This chart sums up Wisconsin’s over-achievements under Bo’s leadership over the past six years. 
UW Basketball: AP Poll Rank
Pre-season
Post-season
2015
3
2
2014
20
4
2013
23
22
2012
15
12
2011
Unranked
15
2010
Unranked
24
Bo’s success with Bucky has been phenomenal: Ryan has lead the Badgers to FOURTEEN consecutive NCAA tournament appearances and SEVEN Sweet Sixteens. The Badgers have finished the season with an improved ranking (comparing postseason AP poll to preseason AP poll) in eleven of his fourteen years. Bo has been overachieving at UW-Madison for fourteen, but for him, exceeding expectations was nothing new. 
Bo’s dominance began in the 90’s, when he secured four DIII national championships during his tenure as coach of UW Platteville, and had the highest winning percentage of any NCAA coach across all divisions  (.908: 266-26). I don’t think it’s a coincidence that in the last twelve years, half of the DIII champions have hailed from Wisconsin. Bo’s domination of DIII as Coach Wisconsin not only aided in defining Bo’s legacy, but established the cheese–head state as the nation’s capital for DIII hoops. 
After a short two year stint at UWM, Bo began his fourteen years as coach by ending a draught. In his first year as coach, the Badgers earned a share of the BIG 10 title for the first time in 55 years. 
Since then, the Badgers have exceeded a winning percentage of .600 every single year, with an overall .905 winning percentage at home. But do these numbers make Bo an all-time great? 
Bo Ryan basketball has never been called sexy. The reason is most likely a result of the Badger’s incredibly slow pace of play, which has ranked in the bottom 10% in the league every single year he has coached. I doubt Bo would be shocked to hear that. Editorials have pinned him as the “coach of 1915” mainly because Wisconsin runs a slow, methodical offense. But when Coach Bo can turn non-McDonald’s All Americans into All-tournament players, you know he’s doing something special. Steady development wins the race. A slow offense may not be in style, but winning always is.
A final fact that points at Bo’s undervalued “stock”: he is the only coach not in the top six highest paid in the NCAA to have lead his team to back-to-back final fours. In fact, the sixth highest paid coach (Tom Izzo) still earns a salary of more than 50% of Bo’s. We are getting incredible value for our dollar, and Bo has already signed a contract through the 2018-2019 season. 
Bo’s Place Among the Living Legends 
So where does Bo rank among the all-time greats? Does he deserve a place in the College Basketball Hall of Fame? In terms of postseason success, we can consider a chart utilized by fivethirtyeight.com, which calculates a statistic known as “Wins above expected.” This measure calculates how much a team (and coach) outperforms expectations.
Wins Above Expected = Wins in the tournament – Expected wins. 
For instance, a #1 seed (on average) wins 3.3 games in a given NCAA tournament. The Badgers’ five victories signifies a 5-3.3=1.7 win total (above expected). Following two consecutive NCAA tournaments where the Badgers have outperformed expectations (last year’s WAE equaled 1.6), Bo Ryan is now ranked 22nd all-time in NCAA tournament wins above expected. 
Guess where Tom Izzo, Coach Calipari, and Coach K. rank? All in the top six all time. That is, their teams outperform their expected win totals expected by their seeding. 
Coach Ryan, ranked as the 22nd most “over-performing” coach of all time, continues to solidify his legacy. Yet, truly appreciating his prowess is difficult, simply because of the era he coaches in. Two-thirds of the 21 coaches ahead of him on this list are active or have retired/moved to the NBA in the past three years, evidence that we are living in the Golden Age of college coaching legends. 
This year’s biggest overachiever was Michigan State: 4 wins –  .9 wins (expected of a 7 seed) = 3.1 wins above expected. The most under–performing team? A tie Between Iowa State and Baylor: the big twelve is awful. In large part, this is explained by the Big 12’s lack of coaching juggernauts.
Before this year’s NCAA basketball season began, ESPN staff writers collected their opinions and produced a ranking of the 50 best coaches in College Hoops. Each of the four coaches to lead their teams to the final four were in the TOP 7. Bo Ryan was listed as #7, with Cal, Izzo, and Coach K earning #2-#4. 
Excluding Jim Boeheim (sanctions…cough), ten of ESPN’s top 16 coaches made this year’s sweet sixteen. Coaching prowess seems to be highly correlated with postseason success. So how about that awful/underperforming Big 12? The BIG 12 conference only had one coach ranked in the top 30. Two three seeds losing in the first round. That conference is bad, mmmk.
What have we learned?
With each subsequent year of outperforming expectations, the legacy of Coach Bo will only continue to grow. I see a spot waiting for Bo in the College Basketball Hallf of Fame. 

Badgers basketball consistently has out-performed preseason AP poll predictions. The Badgers are ranked 25th by ESPN’s “way too early” preseason rankings. I see a top 24 postseason AP ranking in my crystal ball.
The biggest lesson I’ve learned from this year’s March Madness? A quality coach is more important than a handful of one and dones. We don’t need Diamond Stone to excel. Thanks to Bo, the future for Bucky is bright.

The 2015 NBA Playoffs Betting Guide: Investing in Sports Betting

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If you are wondering which teams to bet on during the 2015 NBA playoffs, then look no further.  Following a very profitable NBA regular season of betting (45% return on investments, with a record of 20-8 overall), it’s time to take the NBA postseason by storm. 

I’ve broken down my picks into two sections: individual picks against the spread, and NBA futures (betting on conference champions). So, which team is your best bet against the spread[1]? Let’s just say that the betting markets still haven’t learned to Fear the Deer. The five most undervalued teams against the spread in the first round: Milwaukee, San Antonio, Golden State, Atlanta, and Boston.

If you love winning money, a dollop of statistical analysis, and a healthy serving of risk, then you’ve come to the right blog post. 

Spread Your Money Across These Five Teams (Analysis)

Milwaukee (+7.5) @ Chicago: Bet Milwaukee Against the Spread, On the Road

What Jason Kidd has done with Milwaukee is incredible. Kidd was a nine-time defensive all-NBA player, and in a matter of one year, turned the league’s second most inefficient defense into the second most efficient defense.

Defensive Efficiency
Milwaukee
2013-2014
108.9
2014-2015
99.3
Kidd Effect
9.6

On the opposing bench sits Tom Thibodeau, who has lost 59% of playoff games against the spread in his four years of coaching the Bulls during the playoffs.

Bulls Playoff ATS
Wins
Losses
2014
1
4
2013
5
7
2012
3
3
2011
7
9
16
23
41.0%

Remember that the spread is determined by who is betting, and we can be sure that there are more Bulls fans laying down bets on their home team, especially when the Bulls are playing in Chicago. Additionally, Milwaukee has a 26-14 record of covering the spread on the road this season. 


ATS 2014-2015
Wins
Losses
Pushes (Ties)
3.4
Bucks Away
26
14
1
-1.6
Bulls Home
19
22
0
45
36
55.6%


Stripping away all the bias and Bulls***, Milwaukee is a solid bet against the spread while playing in Chicago.

Spurs (+1.5) @ L.A. Clippers: Bet Spurs Against the Spread, On the Road

It’s clear why the six-seeded Spurs have the third best odds to win the NBA Finals: Gregg Popovich is perhaps the best NBA coach in history against the spread, and the Spurs are a veteran squad of sleeping giants that always awakens during the NBA playoffs. These 3 stats point to why the Spurs are a solid bet.

The Clippers are 15-25 in the playoffs during the Chris Paul era. 
In the past eleven years of the NBA playoffs, the Spurs are 85-73 ATS. 
Los Angeles overvalues their teams at home (Clippers in 2014-2015 are 16-25 at home). It’s a similar situation to Chicago: large markets think their team is unstoppable at home. 

Despite Los Angeles being the #3 seed, the Spurs consistently find a way to outperform expectations.

New Orleans @ Golden State (-11.5): Bet Golden State With the Spread

People still can’t wrap their head around how incredible this Warriors team is. Their average margin of victory is greater than 10 points, with an even greater margin at home (they’ve only dropped two home games the entire season). 

This season, Golden State is 14-1 against the spread following 2+ days of rest. In those fifteen games, the well-rested Warriors have beaten the spread by an average margin of 9 points.
In the Curry Era, Golden State is 14-5 against the spread in the NBA Playoffs.

Here’s the breakdown of Golden State at home and New Orleans on the road this season.



Margin ATS Wins  Losses Pushes
3.3 Warriors Home 26 14 1
-0.7 Pelicans Away 21 20 0
56.8%

Though an 11.5 line looks scary, Anthony Davis’s lack of experience combined with Golden State’s dominating starting five will help the Warriors cover the spread.

Atlanta @ Brooklyn: Bet Atlanta ATS on the Road (spread not yet available)

Atlanta has been the single best team against the spread in 2015, and I see no reason why that trend should not continue, especially against the enormous New York betting market that will be laying down “biased” cash on the Nets. For the same reasons that I suggested betting against Chicago and L.A. at home, I suggest betting against Brooklyn


Avg. Points ATS  2014-2015 ATS Wins Losses Pushes
2 Hawks Away 25 16 2
-3.8 Nets Home 16 23 2
60.0%

The Hawk’s success has been overshadowed, of course, by the Cavalier’s late season surge. It’s a shame, because these Hawks are dominant, and already know a thing or two about feisty #8 seeds (as the #8 seed last year, Atlanta took Indiana to seven games). The Hawks have been the definition of solid this year, and I suspect that they’ll take care of business against a Nets squad that barely snuck in the playoffs, especially when the series heads to Brooklyn.

Bet on Boston ATS following a Boston Win

It’s difficult to bet against LeBron James, but this might be your best year for doing so. Kyrie and Kevin have little to no experience in the playoffs, and the Boston Celtics are the second hottest team in the NBA. The problem? The hottest team is the Cavaliers. 

Still, a great indicator for ATS success is coaching talent (Popovich is the best all-time), and Brad Stevens definitely knows a thing or two about being an underdog in the playoffs. Stevens lead Butler to back-to-back final fours in consecutive years as a #5 and #8 seed respectively. If Boston can somehow manage to beat the Cavaliers, look for the Celtics to follow up the victory with another solid performance. Coming off of a win, the Celtics are dominant, and the Cavaliers aren’t great at bouncing back after losses.


ATS Following Wins Losses
Cleveland loss 11 18
Boston win 27 12


Playoff Futures: Spread Your Money Across these Seven Picks [2]


How I would Spread my $: Picking Conference Champions
Eastern Conference % of Money Multiplier E.V.
Atlanta 20% 4.25 29.6%
Toronto 14% 17 64.9%
Washington 2% 26 17.0%
Boston 33% 67 268.5%
Milwaukee 5% 101 102.0%
Western Conference
Los Angeles 25% 10 0.68
Portland 1% 23 0.104
100%
Eastern Conference Summary: Cleveland is overrated.

This sums up why I suggest placing bets on five of the eight teams in the Eastern Conference. The only other teams that are also over-valued are Chicago and Brooklyn, most likely because they represent the largest markets. Even though LeBron’s playoff record against the spread is close to 60%, Hollinger’s statistics show that the Cavaliers are far from a shoe in for Eastern Conference Champion.

The Wild, Wild Western Conference

This may be one of the most exciting playoffs in the history of the NBA, thanks to the stacked Western Conference. Though the Warriors and Spurs are the clear favorites in the betting markets, they are not nearly as over-valued as the Cavaliers. For this reason, there were only two under-valued picks (Clippers and Trailblazers) to win the Western Conference.

500 to 1 Odds: Your Best Long-shot Bet for the 2015 NBA Playoffs

Bet on L.A. Clippers vs. Boston Celtics to both reach the finals
            (Expected Value = 900%+)

Explaining a Crazy Bet
San Antonio and Cleveland are NOT shoe-ins! Though a rematch between the consistently overachieving Spurs and LeBron James seems inevitable, the statistical projections show that both of these teams are over-rated in the betting markets. The two most under-rated teams in each conference? The L.A. Clippers (who face the Spurs in round 1) and the Boston Celtics (who face the Cavaliers in round 1).

The same goes for LeBron James: in playoff games, his team is an incredible 59.6% against the spread (93-63). But if there are two coaches who have a chance of sleighing these NBA giants, it surely might be Doc Rivers and Brad Stevens. Both have a history of success when it comes to the postseason. If these two teams could overcome their difficult first round matchups, look for them to keep rolling through to the finals.

A second (more realistic) long shot: Toronto vs. L.A. (150 to 1 odds) in the Finals, a 1.6% chance of winning the bet according to Hollinger’s projections.

A Brief Explanation of How I spread the Money (Math explained)

The “multiplier” is the numerical odds given by Vegas. Example: if the multiplier is 3 for the Cavaliers to win the NBA championship, then if I bet $100 and win, I would earn $300 ($200 profit and my original $100 bet).

Expected value means “if I made this bet over and over again, this is how much money I would expect returned on my investment”. 

The Expected Value Equation is:

Expected Value = Probability (of winning bet) * “Multiplier” – 1.

If the expected Value is greater than 10%, I suggested placing the bet, as I did with seven teams in the “NBA Futures” section. I then multiplied the expected value by the probability of reaching the finals, to create proportions for each team. This is how I determined the “% of Money” column.

In my World Cup Betting Model, the largest expected value occurred when Costa Rica played England and Italy, whose GDP’s are more than 1000 times greater than Costa Rica’s. It makes sense that “biased” bets were being placed on the richer nations, as their fans were much more likely to bet. This explains why picking the Bucks against the spread is a solid pick: the Milwaukee market is about one-tenth the size of Chicago’s. There is a ton of value in picking Milwaukee because they are a small market team.

The Money is Moving: Final Observations

For the first round of games, money is moving quickly towards the favorites: Both Golden State and Atlanta’s spreads have shifted by two points, with both teams being favored by double digits in their respective Game One’s. The Dallas Mavericks are the only away team that has money towards them, though they remain a 5-point underdog to open the series.

The most surprising contrast I’ve seen: San Antonio is favored to win their series, but the Clippers are favored to win game 1 (-1.5). I’ve suggested the exact opposite: bet against

Do you think the Bucks have a 20% chance (or better) for winning their series against the Bulls? If so, I’d throw down some money on them, as the multiplier for the Bucks to beat the Bulls is 6 on Bovada (a $20 bet would earn $100 profit, as well as your $20).

With the NBA playoffs tipping off in less than 24 hours, the betting markets are coming alive. Lines are shifting and risk-lovers are doubling down. Enjoy the games and enjoy your investments!



(Note: all of the statistics were found on teamrankings.com, vegasinsider.com, nba.com, and bovadasports.com.)



[1] http://www.explainbettingodds.com
[2]For this section, I utilized ESPN statistician John Hollinger’s model to assess the value of picks for conference champions.

Fantasy Baseball 2015 Preview

aribrown83Leave a comment
Major League Baseball welcomes another season on April 5




In just three short days, Major League Baseball’s 146th season will kick off, and so to will begin another season of Fantasy Baseball. For those who prefer baseball to football, basketball, or any other Major League equivalent, Fantasy Baseball is a great way to participate in the world of fantasy sports. The following are my projections for the 2015 fantasy season. 
Using a combination of projections from ESPN, Fantasy Pros, RotoChamp, and FanGraphs, I averaged each statistic that is counted in most standard fantasy leagues and used that as my projection for each player. By multiplying the value of each statistic by the typical amount of fantasy points it earns, I got a sum value that I call “Projected Fantasy Value”. Values for individual statistics are as follows:

For batters: hit = 1 point, run = 1 point, RBI = 1 point, double = 2 points, triple = 3 points, HR = 4 points, stolen base =1 point, caught stealing = -.5 points, strikeout = -.5 points, walk = 1 point.
For pitchers: inning pitched = 1.5 points, hits = -.5 points, walks = -.5 points, strikeout = 1 point, earned run = -1 point, wins = 7 points, losses = -3 points.
For both, projected WAR drawn from FanGraphs was multiplied by 5 and added to the Projected Fantasy Value for each player. WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, is the amount of wins that player is projected to produce for a team over a replacement level player. Additionally, position eligibility is based on last year, in conjunction with the statistics.


Catchers


Observations
  • There’s a big drop off after Posey and Lucroy, so don’t shell out an early pick for one of the next few guys. The difference between a Perez and a Gomes or Molina over the course of the season is negligible.
  • A lot of guys in the “Next 10” group are really solid, young talent. D’Arnaud had a great 2014, and Montero and Jaso should put up big numbers. Don’t be afraid to take a risk on someone outside of the top 10.


First Basemen

Observations
  • Cabrera, Goldschmidt, Rizzo, Abreu, and Encarnacion are five of the top 15 hitters. Again, if you can’t get one of them, the difference in the next bunch is negligible, so wait it out and try your luck at another position.
  • This group of first basemen is older – Pujols, Fielder, Martinez, Votto, Ortiz, and LaRoche are all in the decline of their careers. Watch out for injuries with them, and don’t be afraid to go with a younger, more unproven talent such as Trumbo.


Second Basemen


Observations
  • Cano is clearly the top player here, and there’s a huge gap between him and #9 Kolten Wong. Therefore, second base is a great place to utilize a player who qualifies at multiple positions, such as Ben Zobrist of the Athletics or Mookie Betts of the Red Sox.
  • Don’t let Altuve’s low RBI and HR numbers scare you – he hit for the league high average last year and is in the peak of his career.


Third Basemen


Observations
  • Injuries are important to watch out for in this category. Beltre, Zimmerman, Wright, and Aramis Ramirez are all pretty old, and Longoria, Sandoval, and Machado all have nursed injuries recently. Draft a good backup or utility player if you pick any one of these guys.
  • This position is pretty deep, and even guys on the lower end of the Next 10 could start in your lineup. Don’t be afraid to wait this position out if you can’t get Donaldson, Beltre, or the multi-position Santana in the first few rounds.


Shortstop


Observations
  • The shortstop position doesn’t have any top 25 players – Tulowitzki is good, but no where close to the level of a Miguel Cabrera or Robinson Cano. Wait until at least the third round to take a shortstop, but don’t be afraid to let this one linger – later names such as Andrelton Simmons and Didi Gregorius could turn out huge seasons.
  • A lot of shortstops don’t hit for power, evidence with names such as Elvis Andrus, Erick Aybar, and Jean Segura. If you choose to draft a non-power hitter, make sure to grab another player at another position who does hit for power.


Outfielders
Observations
  • Trout is undoubtedly the number one pick in any draft. If you have the first pick, take him. He is the only major league player right now who could potentially produce a 40 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI, 25 SB, and above-.300 batting average in a season. Also, his WAR is two higher than any other major league player.
  • Many of the top 25 are unproven, such as Dickerson, Heyward, Calhoun, Betts, and Springer. Feel free to gamble on them, as they are all pretty safe bets, but it’s a good idea to have another solid outfielder who has already proven themselves, such as Gomez, Marte, or Nelson Cruz.
  • Good young names to watch out for include Yelich out of Miami, Soler out of Chicago, and Betts out of Boston. All three have a ton of upside, and 2015 could be their breakout season.


Starting Pitchers

Observations
  • Kershaw, who has won the Cy Young Award in three of the last four years and last season also became the first pitcher in a very long time to take home an NL MVP award, is again undoubtedly the best pitcher. He should be a top 7 pick in any league format that includes pitchers.
  • When picking pitchers, make sure to balance proven picks with trendy ones. Proven names, such as Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale, Price, and Lester, must be balanced with trendier steals such as Kluber, Cueto, Arrieta, and Tanaka.
  • Pitchers are less consistent from season to season than hitters. But many of these names stood out with huge 2014 campaigns. Bumgarner posted one of the best all time postseasons for a pitcher, and Kluber, Zimmerman, Arrieta, Gray, and Keuchel all had breakout seasons.


Relief Pitchers
Observations
  • Relief pitchers are inconsistent, and a lot depends on how the team is doing. Chapman, Kimbrel, and Holland are all safe picks, but the difference in the next ten or so names is negligible. Draft the closers from secure, strong teams such as the Washington Nationals or Detroit Tigers, and avoid tanking teams such as the Philadelphia Phillies or Texas Rangers.




Sources:

  • http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=26,d
  • http://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/projections/c.php
  • http://rotochamp.com/baseball/PlayerRankings.aspx?Position=C
  • http://games.espn.go.com/flb/tools/projections?&display=alt&slotCategoryId=0

March Madness 2015

Zach RosenLeave a comment

It’s somehow that time of year again!

After hours of inputting numbers and creating my own advanced metrics bracket predictor, I am ready to share my picks that I have put together with the following assistance:

1) Ken Pom – http://kenpom.com/index.php. I highly suggest looking at this site. The offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, tempo ratings (possessions per 40 minutes), and “Luck” rating (close game wins – which can go either way usually, i.e. Maryland) all really intrigued me; however, I figured my stats were already taken into account of those efficiency ratings, and I did not think tempo and luck ratings were worth incorporating, just something to be aware of. I used the Pyth Strength of Schedule rating from this site (multiplied by 3 due to its overall significance on the team’s regular season games and experience).

NOTE: Top “Luck” ratings: Wofford, Maryland, Texas Southern, Oregon, North Dakota State, Harvard

NOTE: Top “Tempo” ratings: North Carolina, Arkansas, LSU, Hampton, Iowa State, Buffalo, Eastern Washington

2) NCAA.org – Their site has way more advanced stats than I thought. I used this site for the Assist/Turnover ratios.

3) ESPN – I used ESPN and their Bracket Predictor for the rest of the stats: Adjusted Field Goal %, Free Throw %, Defensive Turnover % (how many turnovers forced per possession), Defensive Effective Field Goal %, Recent 12 games Win-Loss record (multiple by .5 due to its minor, yet worthy significance), 3 Point Field Goal %, and Rebounds Per Game.

Thus, the rating is compiled of this:

=(Adjusted FG % Team X/.589)+(Free Throw % Team X/.778)+(Defensive TO % Team X/.247)+(.397/Defensive FG % Team X)+(Assist/Turnover Rate Team X/1.8)+(Record % Last 12 games *.05)+(3 PT % Team X/.413)+(Rebounds/PG Team X/41)+(Ken Pom Strength of Schedule *3) * 10 

NOTE: the defensive FG % is different from the rest because your target is to have as low as a number as possible.

The top 10 ratings based on my calculations were:

  1. Wisconsin (93.12)
  2. Villanova (92.90)
  3. Kentucky (92.52)
  4. Duke (91.41)
  5. Gonzaga (91.13)
  6. North Carolina (90.84)
  7. Iowa State (90.65)
  8. Davidson (90.17)
  9. Virginia (89.44)
  10. Arizona (89.23)

The outliers (in my opinion), due to the teams that rated very high in one or more categories, from my advanced metrics were:

  • Davidson – rated very high due to its excellent Assist/Turnover ratio (it would be more among the mean without such a high rate)
  • North Carolina – rated very high due to its high Rebounding total (it would be lower without being the best rebounding team in the tournament)
  • Maryland – low Assist/Turnover rate hurt them
  • Lafayette – great shooting numbers, but very bad defensive team
  • Ohio State, Arkansas, Xavier, Michigan State – I would consider them to be rated a little higher than they truly are, no true reasons according to the stats, just my opinion
  • Virginia, Louisville and Northern Iowa – Opposite of Michigan State; very good TEAM play
  • Cincinnati, San Diego State – offensive numbers are abysmal; better than the numbers say
Great cinderella upside based on solely statistics:
  • Davidson
  • Buffalo
  • Valparaiso
  • Stephen F. Austin
  • Harvard
  • Georgia State
  • Dayton
  • Eastern Washington
  • Ole Miss
  • Texas
Other conditions that are hard to measure:
  • Location and geography
  • Pressure from media, undefeated records, etc.
  • COACHING!
  • Clutch
  • Fouls (besides Wisconsin)
  • EYE TEST!
Other sources used for picks:

  • FiveThirtyEight Interactive 
  • New York Times Interactive
Without further ado, click here for the ratings (click download in top right corner) and here is my bracket:

NFL Playoff Team Rater

Zach RosenLeave a comment


Instead of doing a typical predictions column this year, I decided to do something a bit more unorthodox. Each team will be rated on ten categories with a rating of 1 to 10 (10 being the highest). The maximum score is 100. The highest rating gives my likelihood for that team to win the Super Bowl. 

The categories are:

  1. Quarterback: The starting quarterback, his playoff and big game experience, and overall impact.
  2. Passing attack: The surrounding receivers and teamwork with the starting quarterback.
  3. Running attack: The running back(s) and importance to the team’s time of possession.
  4. Trenches (offensive and defensive lines): The importance of winning the game at the line and physicality. 
  5. Run defense: How effective the front seven are at stopping the run.
  6. Pass rush: Sacks, hits on the quarterback, and pressure in terms of affecting the opposing quarterback.
  7. Secondary (pass defense): The secondary’s ability to stop the pass, but also defend the end zone.
  8. Special teams: The importance of a team’s kicker, punter, kick and punt returners, and other special team role players.
  9. Coaching: Head coaching experience, offensive and defensive coordinators, and coaches looking to impress to earn head coaching jobs.
  10. Penalty discipline: Penalties committed and penalties given up and how mistakes can be vital in the playoffs.
NFC

(1) Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

  1. Quarterback: Russell Wilson. He’s a Super Bowl champion, a proven winner, and a poised quarterback. His dual-threat abilities make him a dangerous playoff quarterback, one that matches up well against slower defenses. Quarterback rating: 9.
  2. Passing attack: Wilson can throw the ball to any no-name receiver, but I believe his lack of even above average receivers (sorry Doug Baldwin and Paul Richardson) will come into play at some point. Jermaine Kearse and TE Tony Moeaki will likely be out as well. This is one of the only weak parts of the Seahawks’ team, and is only as high as it is because of Wilson’s ability to make plays after escaping a blitz. Passing attack rating: 5. 
  3. Rushing attack: Wilson and Marshawn Lynch combine to bring the deadliest rushing attack in the NFL. To beat the Seahawks, you need to stop Beast Mode. If you don’t, good luck coming up on top. Rushing attack rating: 10.
  4. Trenches: The Seahawks will be poised to get center Max Unger and left tackle Russell Okung back to complete their offensive line, making it one of the NFL’s best. On the defensive side of the ball, Michael Bennett may be the most underrated defensive end in the NFL, but the team will still miss Brandon Mebane up the middle. The defensive line’s physicality separates them from most teams. Trenches rating: 9. 
  5. Run defense: The Seahawks gave up the third-least amount of rushing yards during the regular season, led by LB Bobby Wagner and S Kam Chancellor. This will continue. Run defense: 10.
  6. Pass rush: Michael Bennett and Bruce Irvin lead the (only) 20th rated pass rush in terms of sacks. Keep in mind the defense has only been completely healthy for a few weeks now. I still would not want these guys coming after me. Pass rush: 9. 
  7. Secondary: The Seahawks gave up the least amount of passing yards during the regular season, which is a sign from the Legion of Boom. CB Richard Sherman and S Earl Thomas are arguably the best at their positions, and you need to play perfect against this secondary to beat them an entire game. Secondary rating: 10. 
  8. Special Teams: Kicker Steven Hauschka and punter Jon Ryan are solid Special Team-ers, but the return game has obviously lost a step since losing Percy Harvin. Special Teams rating: 7.
  9. Coaching: Pete Carroll has remade himself in the NFL in his second stint. He is now a Super Bowl champion and a winner. His offensive coordinator Darren Bevell received interest from Wisconsin for their head coach vacancy and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn will be interviewing for openings around the NFL this week. Coaching rating: 10.
  10. Penalty discipline: The Seahawks were ranked first in penalties per game, and gave up the least amount of penalties to opponents. Penalty discipline: 1. 
Seattle Seahawks total score: 78/100

Seattle Seahawks analysis: The Seahawks are undoubtedly the hottest team coming into the playoffs, the team to beat, and the defending champions. It will be very tough to beat them in the NFC as the NFC playoffs go through Century Link, but I believe all of the NFC teams except the Arizona Cardinals could play them well and get enough breaks to win. They seem a bit more beatable than last year’s team.

(2) Green Bay Packers (12-4)
  1. Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers. He’s also a Super Bowl champion, a proven winner, and a poised quarterback. He is without question going to be the NFL MVP this year. His health will remain to be an issue, but besides that, he is the best quarterback in the NFL right now. Quarterback rating: 10.
  2. Passing attack: This passing attack is lethal. Rodgers and Jordy Nelson have the best QB-WR chemistry in the NFL, and Randall Cobb has become an incredible weapon for the Green Bay offense. Expect rookie receiver Davante Adams and either tight end in Richard Rodgers or Andrew Quarless to have to step up in the passing game as well. Passing attack rating: 10. 
  3. Rushing attack: Eddie Lacy has been outstanding the past ten weeks. He seems to be healthy and have resolved a vision issue he was having. He is the thunder and James Starks is the lightning. This rushing attack has balanced out their offense, and is the key difference between this Packers’ team and many of the past. Rushing attack rating: 9.
  4. Trenches: The Packers’ offensive line has been very healthy all year, and you can tell based on their protection. The main question is in the defensive trenches; it will be up to free agent success Letroy Guion to continue to play at a high level and the rest of the line to play at a high level. In comparison to the rest of the remaining playoff teams, the Packers’ trenches rank pretty low. Trenches rating: 5. 
  5. Run defense: The Packers have struggled against the run (23rd in the NFL), but it has gotten increasingly better since Clay Matthews moved to the inside and Morgan Burnett became basically a linebacker. Poor A.J. Hawk. Run defense: 4.
  6. Pass rush: Matthews, Julius Peppers, and Mike Daniels have lead an impressive pass rush (9th in sacks) that will need to continue to get pressure on the quarterback to get the Packers all the way. Pass rush: 8. 
  7. Secondary: The secondary is a talented group, led by Morgan Burnett who has stepped up his game. They are physical and fast. Regardless, Tramon Williams has not been playing well lately, and the secondary will potentially have to play against Dez Bryant in their first game, which could be a problem. Secondary rating: 7. 
  8. Special Teams: Kicker Mason Crosby has had a pretty solid season as he has seemed to gain his confidence back, but punter Tim Masthay has been struggling as of late. Look for Micah Hyde and Randall Cobb to continue to make big plays on punts. Special Teams rating: 7.
  9. Coaching: Mike McCarthy received an extension this year, and despite his questionable red zone play-calling, he has done well for the Packers. Dom Capers has reinvented the defense and found a fit for almost every player. Coaching rating: 8.
  10. Penalty discipline: The Packers are well disciplined and are great at drawing opposing defenses offsides with Rodgers’ hard count. Penalty discipline: 9. 
Green Bay Packers total score: 77/100

Green Bay Packers analysis: The Packers’ fate relies on Aaron Rodgers’ injury and their ability to stop the run. If they can get to the NFC Championship, a showdown with the Seahawks will most likely occur. I think they are built to be a champion, but the Seahawks stand in their way. 


(3) Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
  1. Quarterback: Tony Romo. He’s a playoff loser and known to be not clutch, but Romo has shown some unseen poise this year. I think the Cowboys should rightfully trust the ball to be in his hands. Quarterback rating: 8.
  2. Passing attack: Romo has one of the best weapons in the NFL in Dez Bryant, with complements in Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, and Jason Witten. Bryant simply makes their passing attack scary. Passing attack rating: 8. 
  3. Rushing attack: DeMarco Murray had a season for the ages in Cowboys’ history, and he should continue to pound the ball through opponents down the stretch. Rushing attack rating: 10.
  4. Trenches: The Cowboys have arguably the best offensive line and the best blocking tight end (Witten) in the NFL. They are better run blockers than pass. The defensive line has had some great games, but is not comparable to the offensive line in terms of talent. Trenches rating: 9. 
  5. Run defense: The Cowboys gave up the 8th fewest yards, thanks to several players stepping up for injured Sean Lee. Run defense: 8.
  6. Pass rush: Dallas struggles to get to the quarterback, as they had the 28th most sacks this season. Pass rush: 2. 
  7. Secondary: Orlando Scandrick has given a spark since returning from suspension (even though it was overturned), and Barry Church has been as consistent as any safety in the NFL. The loss of Morris Claiborne continues to hurt, however. We will see which Cowboys passing defense shows up. Secondary rating: 7. 
  8. Special Teams: Kicker Dan Bailey is arguably the best kicker in the NFL (all-time most accurate NFL kicker). Dwayne Harris continues to shine as a kick returner, and the Special Teams in general do not make many mistakes. Special Teams rating: 9.
  9. Coaching: It is still hard to tell how good of a coach Jason Garrett is, but we do know he is an intelligent man. Monte Kiffin has helped reinvent this defense as well. Coaching rating: 7.
  10. Penalty discipline: Dallas is right in the middle of the pack in terms of penalties, . Penalty discipline: 6. 
Dallas Cowboys total score: 74/100

Dallas Cowboys analysis: I firmly believe the Cowboys could be one of the more complete teams left, but their defensive inconsistency (couldn’t beat the Redskins) worries me at times. They need to play it game-by-game, as they may have the toughest road to Glendale, AZ for the Super Bowl (at Detroit, at Green Bay, at Seattle) for a #3 seed. 


(4) Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
  1. Quarterback: Cam Newton. He has played very well since coming back from a car accident. Again, he has played well against some sub-par competition (see: NFC South), but it has been encouraging. Quarterback rating: 7.
  2. Passing attack: The emergence of Kelvin Benjamin and stardom of Greg Olsen has made this pre-season WOAT passing attack much better than expected. They still probably have the worst passing attack (next to the Seahawks) left amongst the playoff teams. Steve Smith will be missed against Arizona and perhaps thereafter. Passing attack rating: 5. 
  3. Rushing attack: Jonathan Stewart, years into his career, has finally become a great rusher for this team. Newton should run the ball more in the playoffs, and use the zone reads that have made him a Heisman winner and successful NFL quarterback. Rushing attack rating: 8.
  4. Trenches: They are relatively strong on both sides of the ball, led by center Ryan Kalil on offense, and the return of Charles Johnson on defense. Star Lotulelei has looked good as well, but no Greg Hardy has really hurt the front four on defense. Trenches rating: 7. 
  5. Run defense: Lotulelei, Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis have led a better run defense. They still only ranked 17th in run defense this season, but I think they are better than that and match up well with the Cardinals’ rushing attack. Run defense: 7.
  6. Pass rush: Charles Johnson is back, but the pass rush has been above average (13th overall) this year. They were all over Matt Ryan in the NFC South championship game, so that may be a good sign. Pass rush: 7. 
  7. Secondary: Man, the secondary for the Panthers was brutal all year until the last quarter of the season. Since benching Thomas DeCoud, they have seen a lot more success and teams have actually struggled to throw on them. Funny how that works Secondary rating: 6. 
  8. Special Teams: Kicker Graham Gano and returner Philly Brown have been bright spots on Special Teams. Punter Brad Nortman has the lowest net yardage among punters in the NFL. That may be a problem for the Panthers in terms of field position in the playoffs. Special Teams rating: 5.
  9. Coaching: Ron Rivera is a solid NFL coach, and he has proven to be a winner. Will Riverboat Ron go for a 4th and short in the first quarter? Probably. Hopefully the odds work in his favor. Coaching rating: 8.
  10. Penalty discipline: The Panthers had the 4th fewest penalties, and their opponents did not often have many penalties (6th fewest). They played a lot of quick games this season. Penalty discipline: 9. 
Carolina Panthers total score: 69/100

Carolina Panthers analysis: Don’t underestimate the Panthers. They should be able to beat Arizona in that first game, and match up very well with Seattle and have played them well the past couple of years. They probably will not run the table, but they have most of their team from last year besides Steve Smith, Greg Hardy, and Jordan Gross. 


(5) Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
  1. Quarterback: Ryan Lindley. Needless to say, he is not very good. Quarterback rating: 1.
  2. Passing attack: Luckily for Lindley and the offense, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd have great hands, and John Brown is a slot machine waiting to blossom. Still, Lindley limits them. Passing attack rating: 5. 
  3. Rushing attack: Who will step up in Andre Ellington’s absence? I would assume Stepfan Taylor will continue to get the majority of touches, but they need more than what they have been giving. Rushing attack rating: 4.
  4. Trenches: The offensive line has been fairly impressive this year, but they have not protected Lindley too well lately. Calais Campbell leads the defensive line that has really come together with the loss of Darnell Dockett early in the season. Trenches rating: 7. 
  5. Run defense: The run defense fell off toward the end of the season, finishing 13th. I do believe they were a top 10 run defense all season, despite losing linebacker Daryl Washington. Run defense: 8.
  6. Pass rush: The pass rush really fell off this year, ranking only 24th in sacks this season. They will need to pressure Cam Newton in the Wild Card round if they want to win. Pass rush: 5. 
  7. Secondary: Rashad Johnson has really stepped up this year, while Patrick Peterson and newcomer Antonio Cromartie have been consistently effective. They have one of the top secondaries left in the playoffs. Secondary rating: 10. 
  8. Special Teams: Kicker Chandler Catanzaro has been an impressive rookie, but Drew Butler was second last in net punting. Peterson additionally leads a dangerous return game. Justin Bethel is a Pro Bowler as well. Special Teams rating: 8.
  9. Coaching: Bruce Arians has done a helluva job with this team. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will likely be a head coach at this point next year, and has great blitz packages. Coaching rating: 10.
  10. Penalty discipline: One of the best at inducing penalties, and one of the best at penalty discipline. Penalty discipline: 10. 
Arizona Cardinals total score: 72/100

Arizona Cardinals analysis: The Cardinals are built to be a competitor, but their quarterback situation is extremely limiting. If they have to go to Seattle, they have little to no chance of coming out with a victory. They will need Ryan Lindley to become more like Jake Plummer to move far. They will be back and better next year. 

(6) Detroit Lions (11-5)
  1. Quarterback: Matthew Stafford. Can he win a big game? Will he make the big throws that he has not been able to make on the road throughout his career? He is talented and has a big arm, but it is psychological at this point. Quarterback rating: 7. 
  2. Passing attack: Calvin “Megatron” Johnson looks healthy, Golden Tate has been a monster, Eric Ebron has been stepping up, and Stafford has been ok. Passing attack rating: 9. 
  3. Rushing attack: Joique Bell and Reggie Bush are a great combination. The hot hand should fare well in the first game against Dallas. Rushing attack rating: 8.
  4. Trenches: The Lions will get Dominic Raiola back, and Ndamukong Suh will play as he got his suspension successfully appealed. The offensive line has been pretty successful this year, and the defensive line is one of the toughest in the NFL. The injuries to offensive guard Larry Warford and defensive tackle Nick Fairley are concerning. Trenches rating: 9. 
  5. Run defense: Suh, Ziggy Ansah, DeAndre Levy, and company have done well against the run despite the loss of Nick Fairley. Luckily, Fairley has been practicing and may be ready for this game. They gave up the least amount of rushing yards per game all season. Run defense: 10.
  6. Pass rush: The Lions can get to the quarterback pretty well, but they have struggled lately to get sacks instead of stomps. They ranked 8th in sacks this year. Pass rush: 8. 
  7. Secondary: Glover Quin and Darius Slay have been huge winners for this secondary. The matchup against Dez Bryant will be huge, but this is the most improved part of their defense. Secondary rating: 8. 
  8. Special Teams: Kicker Matt Prater has been relatively good considering how awful the kicking game was in the beginning of the year with Alex Henery and Nate Freese. Punter Sam Martin has not been that reliable, and you never know when Jeremy Ross is going to lose the football. Special Teams rating: 2. 
  9. Coaching: Jim Caldwell is an emotionless, mediocre coach. He seems clueless most of the game, but has a talented roster. Coaching rating: 5.
  10. Penalty discipline: Detroit had the 8th most penalties per game in the NFL this year, and their opponents had the 10th fewest penalties against them. Penalty discipline: 3. 
Detroit Lions total score: 69/100

Detroit Lions analysis: The Lions’ success lies in the hands of Matthew Stafford. He is 0-16 in his career on the road against teams with winning records. They should be able to compete against Dallas as they can match their rushing attack with a stellar defensive line. After that, I think Seattle would give Stafford a long day. 

AFC

(1) New England Patriots (12-4)
  1. Quarterback: Tom Brady. The most decorated NFL quarterback of the 21st century. Possibly the GOAT. Will he solidify his case? Quarterback rating: 10. 
  2. Passing attack: Rob Gronkowski is this passing attack, and quite frankly should be in the MVP talk more than Brady. Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell both had breakout seasons as well. Passing attack rating: 9. 
  3. Rushing attack: Shane Vereen; LeGarrette Blount; Jonas Gray; Brandon Bolden. It does not matter who you put in there. The system is in place, and they should be successful against all of the AFC but the Ravens in terms of running the ball. Rushing attack rating: 7.
  4. Trenches: The offensive line is a little banged up and has struggled like they did early in the season. The health of Nate Solder and Dan Connolly is imperative to the Patriots’ success. On defense, Vince Wilfork has showed up this year after coming off injury, and the health of Chandler Jones will be huge. Trenches rating: 7. 
  5. Run defense: Wilfork and Dont’a Hightower have been great, and the run defense has gotten much better compared to last year (9th fewest rushing yards per game). Run defense: 8.
  6. Pass rush: Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich will need to get to the quarterback. Akeem Ayers will be plugged in pass rush situations. This, along with the offensive line injury problems, will be the Patriots’ biggest question marks. Pass rush: 6. 
  7. Secondary: Darrelle Revis is back. Brandon Browner is bringing a physicality to this team that has not been present since the early 2000s. Devin McCourty is one of the most underrated safeties in the NFL. Secondary rating: 10.
  8. Special Teams: Kicker Stephen Gostkowski, punter Ryan Allen, returners Edelman and Danny Amendola, and Pro Bowl special teamer Matthew Slater lead this excellent group. Special Teams rating: 10. 
  9. Coaching: Bill Belichick looks for his fourth Super Bowl. Something tells me he is not thinking about that yet. The Patriots are onto the next opponent. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels deserve a lot of credit as well. Coaching rating: 10.
  10. Penalty discipline: New England was the fourth most penalized team this season, and opponents did not have many penalties as well. They will need Browner to watch himself especially. Penalty discipline: 3. 
New England Patriots total score: 80/100
New England Patriots analysis: The Patriots are as complete as a team as you can get, despite the concerns at offensive line and the pass rush. They do not want Baltimore to come into New England for the Divisional Round and exploit those two issues. Regardless, they have the experience that is basically unmatched besides any other team in terms of their quarterback and head coach. Will they finally bring back the Lombardi trophy?


(2) Denver Broncos (12-4)
  1. Quarterback: Peyton Manning. He has been struggling of late, but he is still Peyton. Will he solidify a run at the title of GOAT QB? Quarterback rating: 10. 
  2. Passing attack: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Julius Thomas are tough to cover. They make Peyton that much better, and are versatile. Passing attack rating: 10. 
  3. Rushing attack: C.J. Anderson has really stepped up to be the rushing threat that the Broncos needed to balance out Peyton’s flailing arm. Rushing attack rating: 8.
  4. Trenches: The offensive line has really come together after several changes, particularly moving Manny Ramirez from center to right guard. The defensive line, led by Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton, bring physicality as well as talent. Trenches rating: 6. 
  5. Run defense: Led by Knighton, the run defense gave up the second fewest rush yards per game in the NFL this season. Despite this statistic, the run defense may struggle without inside linebackers Brandon Marshall (unless he is good to go) and Danny Trevathan. Run defense: 8.
  6. Pass rush: DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller bring the heat! Pass rush: 10. 
  7. Secondary: A much improved secondary, thanks to the signings of Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward. Chris Harris Jr. is an underrated cornerback as well. Secondary rating: 10.
  8. Special Teams: Kicker Connor Barth is relatively new to the team after Matt Prater was released and Brandon McManus struggled. Punter Britton Colquitt had a down year. Omar Bolden is a solid returner. Special Teams rating: 3. 
  9. Coaching: Is John Fox a polished coach? I think these playoffs will be a real test for him. Offensive coordinator Adam Gase is getting a head coaching job soon too, so hopefully he will not be too distracted. Coaching rating: 8.
  10. Penalty discipline: Denver committed the 5th most penalties this season. Penalty discipline: 3. 
Denver Broncos total score: 76/100


Denver Broncos analysis: This team is arguably more complete than the team that went to the Super Bowl last year; however, the Broncos have not played great football lately, especially Peyton Manning. I believe they will ultimately play the Patriots in the AFC Championship, where that home field advantage they lost by losing to the Rams may be key. 


(3) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
  1. Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger. What a great bounce back year for Big Ben. He has two Super Bowl rings and is a proven playoff quarterback. I would want him on my team. Quarterback rating: 10. 
  2. Passing attack: Antonio Brown is arguably the best receiver in football. Heath Miller has been revived. Martavis Bryant is a deep threat every play. Passing attack rating: 10. 
  3. Rushing attack: Will Le’Veon Bell play? If he does, will he be effective? I cannot see him bouncing back from that injury and having a significant impact early on in the playoffs. He may be effective in the Divisional Round. Rushing attack rating: 5 (due to the injury).
  4. Trenches: The offensive line, led by Maurkice Pouncey, has been excellent blocking for Bell all season. The defensive line is banged up, but like all Steelers’ teams, they are tough. Trenches rating: 8. 
  5. Run defense: They ranked 6th in run defense this season, with impressive linebacker Lawrence Timmons leading the way. Run defense: 9.
  6. Pass rush: Jason Worilds and James Harrison lead a pass rush that will get to the quarterback, but did not have as many sacks as the usual Steelers teams. Pass rush: 7. 
  7. Secondary: Troy Polamalu’s health is essential to the secondary’s success. Without him, they will struggle against the passing attacks they will potentially have to face in the AFC, and he can help stop the run. Otherwise, the cornerbacks have struggled and will need to step up. Secondary rating: 5.
  8. Special Teams: Kicker Shaun Suisham had an amazing season, but punter Brad Wing struggled this season. Don’t forget about Antonio Brown returning punts; he might ninja kick you in the face. Special Teams rating: 6. 
  9. Coaching: Mike Tomlin has proven to be a successful, young NFL coach with the help of the ageless Dick LeBeau. I do question Tomlin’s decision-making, like the fake punt late in the game last week, but he is better than most. Coaching rating: 8.
  10. Penalty discipline: Pittsburgh committed the 13th fewest penalties this season, and their opponents averaged 6.1 penalties per game. Middle of the pack. Penalty discipline: 5. 
Pittsburgh Steelers total score: 73/100


Pittsburgh Steelers analysis: The threat of the big play drives this Steelers’ team. Their defense is getting healthy with the returns of Taylor, Polamalu, and Ryan Shazier. I can see them making run all the way to the Super Bowl, but Le’Veon Bell’s injury will hurt, literally. 

(4) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
  1. Quarterback: Andrew Luck. He is the reason they are here, but he needs to get back to the fundamentals and not force as many throws. Quarterback rating: 10. 
  2. Passing attack: T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener have been the go-to guys lately. They have several weapons such as Dwayne Allen that need to be utilized more. Passing attack rating: 8. 
  3. Rushing attack: Definitely the weakest rushing attack amongst the teams left. Relying on Dan Herron as your lead back and still hoping Trent Richardson shows up is not good. Rushing attack rating: 3.
  4. Trenches: The offensive line will need to play better than they have recently and need to block for Luck better. Arthur Jones, Cory Redding, and Ricky Jean Francois have been pretty strong all year. Trenches rating: 6. 
  5. Run defense: They ranked right in the middle of the pack thanks to the consistent play of the underrated Jerrell Freeman and tackle-machine D’Qwell Jackson. Run defense: 5.
  6. Pass rush: The pass rush has gone under-appreciated as they ranked 9th in the league in sacks. Pass rush: 8. 
  7. Secondary: The secondary has improved mightily from last year, as Pro Bowler Vontae Davis and the physical Greg Toler have done well on the outside. You can still throw on the Colts, however. Secondary rating: 7.
  8. Special Teams: Kicker Adam Vinatieri had a nearly perfect season, punter Pat McAfee is one of the best in the business, and Josh Cribbs has resurrected from The League to lead a talented Special Teams. Special Teams rating: 10. 
  9. Coaching: Chuck Pagano has done well once again with this team, and I think he makes this team better. Coaching rating: 8.
  10. Penalty discipline: Denver ranked in the middle of the pack for penalties for and penalties against. Penalty discipline: 5. 
Indianapolis Colts total score: 70/100


Indianapolis Colts analysis: What is this team besides Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton? They are going to need a lot of players to step up in order to make a run this year. They have not beaten a “good” team in weeks. They need to start hot from the beginning of their first game with the Bengals.
(5) Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1)
  1. Quarterback: Andy Dalton. He has played well as of late, but he has not been a successful playoff quarterback. Quarterback rating: 6. 
  2. Passing attack: A.J. Green makes this passing attack relevant, if he is healthy. Mohamed Sanu will need to step up, as he has been very quiet as of late. Jermaine Gresham’s injuries are quietly a big deal. Passing attack rating: 8. 
  3. Rushing attack: Jeremy Hill has been outstanding, and Giovani Bernard has settled into his role well for the Bengals. Rushing attack rating: 10.
  4. Trenches: The offensive line has been winning in the trenches recently, same with the defensive line. You have to love the physicality both sides of the ball have been bringing. Trenches rating: 9. 
  5. Run defense: They gave up the 13th most rushing yards this season, despite a healthy Geno Atkins. The loss of Vontaze Burfict most of the season may be the root of the problem. Run defense: 7.
  6. Pass rush: After an impressive couple of years rushing the passer, they were dead last in sacks this year. But, the pass rush has come on as of late. Pass rush: 4. 
  7. Secondary: Reggie Nelson, Leon Hall, and especially Dre Kirkpatrick have been returning to old form. I still think they are too aggressive in chasing passes that often result in touchdowns; however, as we saw in the game against the Broncos, gambling on those balls can work out in your favor too. Secondary rating: 8.
  8. Special Teams: Kicker Mike Nugent is accurate, but has struggled lately. The injury to punter Kevin Huber is concerning. And Pacman Jones can always return anything. Special Teams rating: 5. 
  9. Coaching: Marvin Lewis is the second longest tenure coach in the NFL behind Bill Belichick. He has some questionable coaching at times, but he continues to win. Can he win some important games now? Coaching rating: 7.
  10. Penalty discipline: The Bengals committed the 12th fewest penalties and were in the middle of the pack in opponent penalties. Penalty discipline: 6. 
Cincinnati Bengals total score: 70/100


Cincinnati Bengals analysis: Will Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis prove that they can win in the playoffs? Is A.J. Green healthy? Can Dalton survive the consecutive amount of primetime games he has to play? I think this is one of their more talented teams, and they have played in tough games this year and competed; however, I am not sure they can win on the road consistently. 

(6) Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
  1. Quarterback: Joe Flacco. He has been awful as of late; however, his playoff record and success speak for themselves. He is a big game quarterback, but “elite” may be a stretch. Quarterback rating: 7. 
  2. Passing attack: The distant cousins Steve and Torrey Smith are always dangerous down the field, but nobody else really worries a defense. Passing attack rating: 6. 
  3. Rushing attack: Justin Forsett has been impressive in the zone blocking scheme they run, and has replaced Ray Rice effectively. Rushing attack rating: 8.
  4. Trenches: This offensive line has protected Flacco okay most of the season, but their run blocking is much better. The defensive line is always tough, lead by Haloti Ngata, who will be returning from suspension. Trenches rating: 9. 
  5. Run defense: They gave up the fourth fewest rushing yards this season, led by rookie C.J. Mosley. They are tough to run on; I would consider them the best run defense in the AFC remaining by far. Run defense: 10.
  6. Pass rush: The Ravens, led by Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs, had the second most sacks in the NFL behind the Buffalo Bills. Pass rush: 9. 
  7. Secondary: A lost cause. This unit is the key to the Ravens making a run. Secondary rating: 1.
  8. Special Teams: Kicker Justin Tucker is a stud, but Sam Koch had a down year. Returner Jacoby Jones is always dangerous. Special Teams rating: 7. 
  9. Coaching: John Harbaugh has had success in the playoffs and will continue to be one of the best coaches in the AFC. Coaching rating: 8.
  10. Penalty discipline: Baltimore committed the 18th most penalties and induced the 9th most. This is a strong suit for them. Penalty discipline: 8. 
Baltimore Ravens total score: 72/100


Baltimore Ravens analysis: I know that many people do not think the Ravens have a shot. They truly have not beaten many good teams all year. The main concern is in the secondary, which has been atrocious. Regardless, they are a playoff team, have the experience, and will battle with any team they play. 
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The 2014-15 NFL Playoff Rankings
  1. New England Patriots – 80/100
  2. Seattle Seahawks – 78/100
  3. Green Bay Packers – 77/100
  4. Denver Broncos – 76/100
  5. Dallas Cowboys – 74/100
  6. Pittsburgh Steelers – 73/100
  7. Arizona Cardinals – 72/100
  8. Baltimore Ravens – 72/100
  9. Cincinnati Bengals – 70/100
  10. Indianapolis Colts – 70/100
  11. Detroit Lions – 69/100
  12. Carolina Panthers – 69/100

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SOURCES
Teamrankings.com
NFL.com
ESPN
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