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Wisconsin’s upset at Penn State — overcoming a 17-0 hole to beat No. 13 — has injected real optimism into Madison. With the Badgers 3-1 overall and 1-0 in Big Ten play, Saturday’s homecoming versus Michigan State feels like a chance to build momentum.
Will Colton Joseph bounce back?
Colton Joseph finished the night as the hero, engineering two late touchdown drives that sealed the upset. Yet his performance was a study in extremes: three interceptions and several poor throws early, followed by a pinpoint touchdown to Eugene Hilton Jr and a game-winning 72-yard strike to Jacob Harris.
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The inconsistency is hard to ignore. Each of Joseph’s first three picks looked worse than the last, including a hurried 3rd-and-6 swing pass that never gave the receiver a chance. Head coach Luke Fickell put the issue plainly: “We know we’ve gotta make better decisions with the football. That’s what it comes down to,” Fickell said. “The first one wasn’t a great throw, it’s the right, probably, decision and read. Give the guy credit, he makes a helluva play…the other two were not good decisions.”
Michigan State’s secondary ranks a respectable 34th nationally, allowing about 190 passing yards per game, but the Spartans have recorded only one interception so far. In what is expected to be a close homecoming contest, another ill-timed turnover from Joseph could swing the game away from Wisconsin.
Can the Badgers’ defense remain suffocating?
The defensive performance in Happy Valley was the backbone of the victory. Even after Joseph’s early turnovers — including a pick-six and another interception that set Penn State up at Wisconsin’s 11-yard line — the Badgers limited the Nittany Lions to two field goals and kept the longest opposing drive to 56 yards over 13 plays.
Wisconsin tightened up especially in the second half, holding Penn State to 122 yards after halftime, forcing four consecutive three-and-outs, and recording five tackles for loss and two sacks. The Nittany Lions averaged just 3.8 yards per play, and quarterback Rocco Becht finished 12-of-29 for 129 yards with one interception.
Michigan State’s offense has not been dominant against Power Four opponents this season, so another high-level defensive showing would go a long way toward preserving Wisconsin’s upward momentum.
Can Wisconsin establish the run?
Despite the 3-1 start, Wisconsin’s ground game has been underwhelming. The Badgers sit 107th nationally, averaging only 101.3 rushing yards per game — a surprisingly low total given Joseph’s mobility and a stable of backs on the roster.
Michigan State ranks 48th versus the run, allowing roughly 124 yards per game. The Spartans contained midweek opponents like Toledo and Eastern Michigan but have yielded runs of 161 and 157 yards to Notre Dame and Nebraska, respectively.
Availability is a concern. Abu Sama couldn’t finish at Penn State and remains a question mark, while USC transfer Bryan Jackson was unavailable there. Still, freshman contributor Darrion Dupree has been a bright spot, and TCU transfer Nate Palmer has seen some work. Dupree’s effort last week drew high praise from Fickell: “Grown man performance,” Fickell said of his tailback. “For him to step up when Abu went down, for him to have 48 reps, not just the amount of carries and catches that he had but the way he played down the stretch, I know we celebrate it…I couldn’t be more happy and proud for a guy who hasn’t had everything as he envisioned…He continues to raise his game and we’re gonna need him.”
Ultimately, reviving the running game will hinge less on one back and more on the offensive line consistently winning at the point of attack. With a favorable matchup looming, this weekend presents a good opportunity for Wisconsin to find traction on the ground.
