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Wisconsin arrives at its next home game buoyed by a shock road win at No. 13 Penn State and a chance to head into the bye week 4-1 overall and 2-0 in Big Ten play. Michigan State, rebuilding under new coach Pat Fitzgerald, presents a matchup oddsmakers and analysts expect to be decided by a possession or two.
Wisconsin comfortably covers the spread
Oddsmakers list the Badgers as roughly a 9.5-point favorite on FanDuel, a line that reflects both Wisconsin’s recent momentum and lingering concerns about consistency on offense.
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Wisconsin’s homecoming matchup with Michigan State: three predictions
Despite the upset in Happy Valley, Wisconsin’s offense still struggles to establish the run and protect the football. Quarterback Colton Joseph has generated seven turnover-worthy plays this season, a figure tied for third-most nationally. Those giveaways can quickly narrow any margin.
That said, the matchup favors the Badgers. Michigan State’s offense leaned heavily on tailback Cam Edwards, who is out for the year, removing a key playmaker for the Spartans. Wisconsin’s defense has been notably stout against the run, while Michigan State’s unit has shown vulnerability at times.
Joseph’s turnover numbers suggest some regression toward the mean is possible; fewer catastrophic plays would make a comfortable cover more likely. But if Wisconsin gifts points, this game could tighten fast.
Darrion Dupree tops 150 all-purpose yards and scores
Running back Darrion Dupree looks positioned for a big all-purpose outing. Against Penn State he led Wisconsin in rushing (six carries for 52 yards) and was the team’s second-leading receiver (four catches for 44 yards), showcasing his balance and short-area quickness.
Coach Luke Fickell praised Dupree’s readiness after increased opportunities, saying, “For him to step up when Abu went down, for him to have 48 reps, not just the amount of carries and catches that he had but the way he played down the stretch, I know we celebrate it. I couldn’t be more happy and proud for a guy who hasn’t had everything as he envisioned…He continues to raise his game and we’re gonna need him.”
With Abu Sama’s availability uncertain, Dupree should see a healthy workload. If Michigan State’s top linebacker, Jordan Hall — who has 21 tackles so far — is unavailable as the team lists him doubtful, the Spartans could struggle to slow Dupree once he reaches the second level. That combination makes 150 all-purpose yards and a touchdown a realistic projection.
Sebastian Cheeks records multiple sacks
Edge defender Sebastian Cheeks has been a relentless pressure player this season. He owns 18 quarterback pressures, tied for fourth nationally, and a pressure rate of 23%, which ranks among the best in the country.
Those pressures have translated to only 2.5 sacks so far, but the matchup against Michigan State’s protection group looks favorable. Spartans quarterback Alessio Miliojevic has faced pressure on 42 of 123 drop-backs, a 34% pressure rate. Opponents such as Notre Dame (14) and Toledo (11) have routinely created pressure on him.
Michigan State’s starting tackles, Rakeem Johnson and Ben Murawski, have allowed seven and six pressures respectively. Wherever Cheeks lines up, he should find a matchup that allows him to turn frequent pressure into multiple sacks on Saturday.
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