Last summer, the Bucks shocked the entire NBA by beating out the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks in signing Greg Monroe. Historically, the Lakers and Knicks were able to leverage their large markets and championship tradition to poach star players in free agency, so the success of a small market sent tremors league-wide.
This offseason, Milwaukee will try to build on that success and continue to be a force in free agency. With a huge jump in the cap, and a brand new arena around the corner, Milwaukee should have a strong pitch to make to free agents. While this summer may come to be known as the summer of Kevin Durant, there is one player flying under the radar who would be a perfect fit for the Bucks: Nicolas Batum.
Jason Kidd recently announced that Giannis Antetokounmpo would be the point guard going into next season, which alleviates the need for the Bucks to go after a starting caliber point guard. It also opens up an interesting wrinkle for next season’s starting lineup. With Giannis taking over ball-handling duties, there is a spot in the lineup for another shooting guard or small forward hybrid player.
Two of the Bucks’ biggest weaknesses this season have been three-point shooting and defense. By adding a “3 and D” player to the lineup, the Bucks can efficiently address two needs with one player. Currently, Khris Middleton is the only player on the team who fits that mold, although he is much more than just a 3 and D player. However, adding another player like that will really spread out both sides of the floor, opening up the offense for more 1/4 pick and rolls for Giannis and Jabari. This is where Nicolas Batum would fit in really well.
Batum is a career 36% shooter from beyond the arc, and at 6’8″, has tremendous size and length to play in a switch heavy defense like the Bucks’ system. The French native can play both shooting guard and small forward, and can even slide up to power forward as a stretch four, similar to how the Warriors employ Harrison Barnes. This versatility opens countless lineup possibilities for Kidd to use and can be utilized to create matchup nightmares for other teams. Batum also comes playoff-tested, having made the playoffs five times with the Trailblazers and seemingly on his way to another postseason with the Hornets this season.
The advanced metrics are also very kind to him. His career per season Value over Replacement Player (VORP) is 2.66. VORP is an advanced metric which calculates a player’s point value to a team against what a league average player would contribute over 100 possessions on an average team. To put that in perspective, Milwaukee’s most consistent player this season is Khris Middleton, whose VORP from this season and last is a modest 1.9. Additionally, after a down shooting season in his last year in Portland, Batum’s effective field goal percentage is back over 50% this season. Effective field goal percentage adjusts for the higher point value of a 3-point make, which just highlights Batum’s status as a very good 3-point shooter.
Players like Batum aren’t cheap to come by, as his skill set and versatility are hot commodities, especially in the modern NBA. The Bucks had to offer Khris Middleton a max contract to keep him last offseason, and the dynamics of the market will be dramatically different this offseason, as a result of the jump in the cap.
However, money shouldn’t an issue in signing Batum. With a projected $108 million cap in 2017, the Bucks should be able to re-sign Giannis and Jabari to big deals in the future, while still being able to pursue quality players in free agency the next few summers. In addition, the Bucks have nearly $20 million coming off the books this offseason, although at least some of it will be spent on re-signing key contributors like Miles Plumlee. Batum is currently making just over $13 million; he can certainly expect a hefty raise in his next contract, but Batum is not exactly a max player, which means the Bucks should be able to still get him at a reasonable price.
One final key point about Batum is that he is still only 27 years old. Although he is a veteran, Batum is about to enter his prime years and signing him to a contract now would allow Milwaukee upgrade its shooting and defense right away.
Batum would be a perfect for the Bucks on both offense and defense, as he addresses a number of needs and is entering his prime. He will be an affordable player and his skill set is one that can contribute immediately, without sacrificing the Bucks’ long-term plan of building around Giannis and Jabari.
Short of signing Kevin Durant, Batum would be the best free agent for the Bucks to sign.
Great article! Bucks would have a solid starting 5 that could grow together and compete in the upper echelons in the near future!
LikeLike