The Milwaukee Bucks will get the NBA’s next chance to knock off the undefeated Warriors after Golden State went to overtime Friday night in Boston. The Warriors are an absurdly efficient two-way monster that have wreaked havoc on the NBA for the last calendar year. And when you break it down, you’d be hard-pressed to find two teams as different as these squads.
For one, the Warriors are the model of consistency, while the Bucks’ season has been plagued by inconsistent basketball throughout. The Dubs have scored at least 100 points in every single game this year; the Bucks have only managed the feat eight times in 23 tries. Golden State has also managed to maintain their identity on defense this season, which is the biggest thing missing from the 2015-2016 Bucks. The Warriors’ point guard is the best shooter of all time, whereas the Bucks’ point guard might be the worst shooting guard in the league. The Dubs have a rim protector; the Bucks have Greg Monroe. The Warriors’ starting lineup (and Iguodala) has been working together and creating chemistry for the better part of four years. The Bucks’ current starting lineup hasn’t even been together for three months. The odds are clearly pretty stacked against Milwaukee.
But that’s not to say they can’t be the team to do it (after all, they’ve done it before). This is a hungry, scrappy young Bucks squad in search of an identity but desperate to make a statement. This is also the same team that beat the Cavaliers in double-overtime at home, which is the best they’ve looked all season. Milwaukee is actually 7-5 at home this year, so there’s reason to believe they’re able to step up to the challenge. Let’s examine a few ways they can achieve the seemingly impossible.
Milwaukee is healthier and less tired than Golden State right now
Unfortunately, this is the Bucks best avenue to success. Klay Thompson sprained his ankle against Indiana on Tuesday and will likely be a game-time decision in Milwaukee Saturday night after not playing Friday night against Boston. Harrison Barnes is still tentatively out with ankle injury.
The Bucks have their injuries as well, as Jerryd Bayless and Greivis Vazquez are both likely out on Saturday. Not having both is a blow for the team, especially in the backcourt, but these two still aren’t nearly as important to the Bucks as Klay and Barnes are to the Warriors.
If Klay can’t play or does so on a hobbled ankle, it allows Milwaukee to focus almost exclusively on Stephen Curry. As we’ve learned over the past year, there’s really no way to stop Curry when he’s on. Good luck trying to stop him from pulling up from five feet behind the three point line. But Milwaukee’s best bet is to consistently switch onto Curry with MCW, Middleton, Mayo and Giannis and attempt to deter his shots with all of their long arms.
Best of all? The Warriors played extra minutes against Boston, and they’re going to be tired coming into Milwaukee. Several Golden State players played 40-plus minutes in Boston, which will impact their energy and quickness against Milwaukee. The Bucks played hard against Toronto on Friday night, but they still get to sleep in their own beds and play at home on Saturday.
Who will step up?
This seems pretty obvious, but it’s key. Along with the Bucks’ collective consistency struggles, most of the players have struggled to score individually. Giannis, Monroe and Middleton are all usually good for around 14-17 points a game, but Milwaukee hasn’t been able to ride many explosive offensive performances to a victory. They need one or two of their starters to keep Golden State on its toes defensively.
Giannis and Jabari are the most likely candidates. With Barnes out and Klay hobbled, Golden State is down a few of its best defenders. Whichever one of these players is not being guarded by Draymond Green will need to take advantage of the matchup and be aggressive scoring the ball and getting to the free throw line. Iguodala will still come in and play lockdown defense, but Giannis still has the size and strength to potentially exploit this matchup. A couple of big dunks by these two will help get the crowd pumped up and making noise.
Bottom line: Win the fundamentals
We can nitpick all we want, but Milwaukee will need to be practically flawless to win on Saturday. That’s simply the nature of playing a historically great team on a historically dominant winning streak. There’s no way around that. But when you have a disciplined coach who has the respect of his players like Jason Kidd does, nothing is out of the realm of possibility.
And winning starts with doing the little things right. In all of the games that Golden State’s opponents have come close to winning, it’s because they’ve won the fundamental battle. They’ve out-rebounded them, shot well from the field by creating high percentage shots, and kept turnovers within reason.
The Bucks have struggled to rebound the ball – though they’ve been a bit better of late – and they’ve been inconsistent in the turnover game. They will have out rebound Golden State and make sure they don’t give them any second chances on offense. As much as Milwaukee needs Monroe’s scoring and rebounding abilities, this needs to be a game where John Henson steps up. He fits better against Golden State’s quick team and he’s a significant upgrade protecting the paint.
Along with rebounding, Golden State’s biggest weakness, if they even have one, is turnovers. Because they run such a high-tempo offense with a carousel of movement and players, they are somewhat prone to turning the ball over. The Bucks were a menace forcing turnovers last year, and their best bet is to win that battle again and try and keep up with the Warriors pace. Win these two battles, shoot well and hold Curry under 30, and Milwaukee just might be heroes again.