This is it, the moment we’ve all been waiting for. The NBA finals are, um, finally here, and not a moment too soon. After an exciting semifinals in both conferences, the Warriors and Cavaliers waltzed their way into the finals, both enjoying easy wins over their respective opponents. Once the Dubs got off to their blistering and historic 21-2 start and LeBron came back from his early season sabbatical, for many this has felt like this year’s inevitable Finals matchup. As it turns out, they were right. It’s the best player in the world against the best player this season. It’s the best offense in the playoffs against the second best offense in the playoffs. It’s the Splash Brothers versus the Bash Brothers. It’s a matchup between two cities desperately seeking basketball relevance. It’s the NBA Finals; I hope you’re excited as I am.
Here are my five keys to what should be a competitive series:
1. Health
Unfortunately, this could prove to be the most important factor in this year’s finals. Perhaps in response to Bogut’s untimely injury last year and many years of basketball mediocrity, it seems the basketball Gods are finally smiling down upon the Dubs. The Warriors have been the only team in this year’s playoffs to make it past the first round and not sustain a significant injury to a key contributor. That’s insane. The Grizzlies missed games from two core players in Tony Allen and Mike Conley, John Wall broke roughly 217 bones in his wrist (and still played!), Chris Paul missed time to nurse his hamstring, Dwight’s knees are aging horribly, the Hawks sputtered with an injured DeMarre Carroll and then lost Kyle Korver, and Pau got hurt while playing alongside Joakim Noah who hasn’t looked himself all season. That list doesn’t even include the regular season injuries to Thabo Sefolosha, Wesley Matthews, Chandler Parsons, Paul Millsap and Kevin Durant that all influenced the scope of this year’s playoffs greatly. That leaves us with the Cavs and the Warriors, the two teams on the furthest extremes of the spectrum.
I wrote the above paragraph and literally within ten minutes this happened to Steph Curry. Needless to say, I shut my laptop immediately so as not to anger the injury Gods even more than I already had. Then, in the next game, Klay Thompson took a flying knee to the head from Trevor Ariza. Curry amazingly only sustained a head contusion, which is far better than it sounds, and though Thompson was concussed head coach Steve Kerr believes he will be ready for the start of the series. Prior to games four and five, however, Marreese Speights was the only Warrior to go down with an injury. He suffered a calf strain in game three against the Grizzlies and hasn’t seen the court since. Although he was a key contributor off the bench during the regular season, Speights saw his postseason minutes cut in half and the Warriors have surged on without his presence. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have been hit hard by the injury bug. Kevin Love is out of the playoffs after having surgery to repair a torn labrum, Kyrie Irving has looked like a shell of his All-Star self while battling knee tendinitis, and Cavalier lifer/rim protector Anderson Varejao has been out for months. With one-third of the Cavs Big Three out and another third banged up, there is even more pressure on LeBron to lead his team to victory.
Verdict: Significant advantage Warriors
2. Depth
Both Bob Myers and David Griffin, the respective General Managers of the Warriors and Cavaliers, deserve loads of credit for the job they’ve done building their rosters. Myers won the NBA Executive of the Year Award, receiving much deserved credit for crafting a deep and balanced roster and finding the perfect rookie coach in Steve Kerr. Griffin – my choice for top Exec – finished second in the voting, spurred by key midseason trades that brought J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Timofey Mozgov to Cleveland. There’s also that thing he did where he got the best player in the world to rejoin his team, but that’s a different story. The fact remains, however, that when comparing the depth of these teams’ rosters, Myers seems the more deserving victor.
Both teams have quality starting lineups from positions one through five, and both were in the top five for +/- during the regular season. Their bench situations, however, paint a different picture. The Warriors have an army of veteran wing players they can throw at you, all of whom fit well in the aggressive switching defense they employ. This is an example of a Warriors second unit they can trot out on a given night: Shaun Livingston, Leandro Barbosa, Andre Iguodala, David Lee and Festus Ezeli. Livingston was starting for the Nets in last year’s postseason, Ezeli is an underrated center, Iguodala finished fourth in Sixth Man of the Year voting and is probably the best perimeter bench defender in the league, and David Lee is their highest paid player and a two-time All-Star. The Knicks would kill to have that as their starting lineup. They also have two sharpshooters in Brandon Rush and Justin Holiday, a promising rookie forward in James McAdoo and the aforementioned Speights, who has a career PER of 16.5. Bottom line, this bench is deep and has a great balance of defense, passing, shooting, rebounding and veteran leadership. Kerr and his brilliant coaching staff – shoutout to my former neighbor Ron Adams! – have used this depth to their advantage and deploy several position-less funky lineups that give opposing coaches headaches.
The Cavs, meanwhile, are down to two serviceable bench players and an eight-man rotation. Two! One of those serviceable players is Matthew Dellavedova a scrappy Australian point guard who has garnered a reputation for dirty plays in this year’s playoffs. This is also the same player who went undrafted two years ago and had an 8.5 PER this season while shooting a paltry .307 on two-point field goals. He has stepped up with Irving injured and always plays hard, but he is hardly someone to worry about. The Cavs best bench threat is Iman Shumpert, an energetic 3 and D guy that can guard most people on the wing; basically a poor man’s Andre Iguodala. Shumpert will be key in slowing down the Splash Brothers.
The true X-factor the Cavs had off the bench was Tristan Thompson, an underrated defender and a vicious rebounder who can finish around the rim. This is an edge the Cavs have since lost, as Thompson has smartly been thrust into the starting lineup in the absence of Kevin Love. That only leaves James Jones to fill out the eight-man rotation, a deadly three-point shooter who can’t play a lick of defense and only played 11 minutes per game this season. This is ultimately where Griffin, and GM LeBron James, have failed. LeBron pushed adamantly for veteran help, and got his wishes when the Cavs signed Shawn Marion, Mike Miller, and Kendrick Perkins to short, win-now deals. Those three, however, find themselves glued to the bench, along with 35 year old center Brendan Haywood and rookie guard Joe Harris. The minutes and mileage that LeBron has piled on while carrying teams to five straight NBA Finals appearances require a deep bench to take off some of the burden, and yet he finds himself shouldering as much of the load as he has since his first trip to the Finals with Cleveland in 2007. A contribution from Marion, Miller or Perkins would go a long way in helping the Cavs balance out their roster and help provide James and Irving with some much needed rest. Stepping up in the finals is nothing new for Mike Miller.
Verdict: Advantage Warriors
3. Second Bananas
No, you did not read that incorrectly: each team’s respective Second Bananas will play a huge role in the outcome of this series. What is a Second Banana you ask? Simply put, it is the obvious second-best player on a team with a blatant best player. For example, on this past year’s Wisconsin Badgers basketball team, Sam Dekker was Frank Kaminsky’s second banana. Similarly, Robin is the Second Banana to Batman’s First Banana. There are times, however, when the term is not applicable; there are no obvious candidates for Second Banana on this year’s socialistic Atlanta Hawks squad, may they rest in peace. Kyrie Irving is the Second Banana to LeBron on the Cavs, in the same way that Klay Thompson is clearly the Second Banana on the Warriors. Both were All-Stars this year, put on insane scoring performances that make less sense every time you watch them, and made the All-NBA third team. Even still, they are both the sidekicks of two MVP winners, both of whom made the ALL-NBA first team this season. Let’s take a look at their stats for this year, which are eerily similar:
It’s certainly not fair to say that each team only goes as far as these Second Bananas will take them, but they both need All-Star contributions from these core players if they want to raise up the Larry O’Brien Trophy this June. Klay is as important to the Warriors’ defensive success as he is to their ability to score the ball. He has quietly established himself as a very solid perimeter defender, and often defends point guards that give Curry too much trouble. Don’t be surprised if he ends up guarding Irving for large portions of this series. Even though Kyrie is a better playmaker and ball handler than Klay is, Thompson is a significantly better defender and is way more effective without the ball in his hands than Kyrie can be. Bearing all this in mind, I’m giving Klay the slight advantage here, especially when considering Kyrie’s questionable health.
Verdict: Slight advantage Warriors
4. Coaching
This is the first time since the NBA’s inaugural season that two rookie coaches are meeting in the NBA Finals. Though this is the first go around as an NBA head coach for both Steve Kerr and David Blatt, both have distinct basketball experience. Kerr won five championships as an NBA player and spent time as the Phoenix Suns GM and a basketball broadcaster, whereas Blatt enjoyed plenty success as a head coach in Europe and Israel. Kerr finished second in this year’s NBA Coach of the Year voting, and many (including myself) feel he was wrongly snubbed by Mike Budenholzer of the Atlanta Hawks. Blatt, meanwhile, has become the butt of numerous jokes and has taken an unfair amount of scrutiny when things aren’t going well for the Cavs. He has also been bailed out of several situations by assistant coach Tyronn Lue, but to be fair he receives almost zero credit for the Cavaliers success, which isn’t right either.
Managing minutes and egos and figuring out lineups that work are all crucial components of securing a postseason berth in the first place. But coaching in the playoffs is a different animal altogether, and whichever coach is able to make the first successful tactical adjustment could be crowned victorious. Kerr was brilliant in the Grizzlies series, switching Andrew Bogut to guard the offensively challenged Tony Allen. This clogged up the middle for any pick-and-rolls the Grizzlies tried to run and eventually forced Tony Allen off the floor, even though he’s the Grizzlies best perimeter defender. Blatt was similarly effective against the Hawks, changing the Cavs defensive scheme to have their big men stay home on screens, daring ball handlers like Jeff Teague and Denis Schröder to shoot jumpers. This underrated switch disrupted the seemingly impeccable timing and ball movement of the Hawks offense and they subsequently struggled to shoot throughout the series. Blatt has also had his share of misfires, exemplified by his poor decision to start Mike Miller in game one of the Bulls series and his mismanagement of the Cavs’ timeouts.
Kerr has championship experience in the NBA and an elite coaching staff, and he also has the undisputed support and respect from his players. Blatt, on the other hand, is better than most people give him credit for but hardly seems to have respect from his roster and isn’t as quick to notice strategic flaws as Kerr is. It will be up to Blatt to match Kerr and be the first one to find a strategic weakness; most may not think he’s up for it, but I do. One key thing to watch for is how Blatt responds to the funky small-ball lineups that the Dubs like to use without overriding LeBron too much. Blatt has the ability to match the small-ball that the Warriors love by surrounding James with shooting (three of Irving, Dellevadova, Smith, Shumpert, Miller or Jones) and allowing Thompson to pound of the offensive glass at the five. This should help neutralize a lineup that has seemingly been an advantage to the Warriors throughout the playoffs.
Verdict: Advantage Warriors
5. Defense
I think this is the most crucial talking point to the whole series. The Warriors led the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season, spearheaded by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Draymond Green, seven-foot rim protector Andrew Bogut and a bevy of long-armed athletic wing defenders. The Cavs had the 11th worst defensive efficiency in the NBA, but that number is skewed by their poor start to the season; they were the 14th most efficient defense after the All-Star break when they put together the roster that better resembles the one they have today. In the playoffs, both teams have been excellent defensively, with the Cavs actually having a slightly better defensive rating than the Warriors, albeit while playing in the Eastern Conference.
Part of the Cavaliers’ newfound defensive success relates to the aforementioned Second Banana category. Kyrie Irving is a below average defender, but he has been injured throughout this year’s postseason. Matthew Dellevadova has stepped up in his absence, and the Cavs have been much better defensively with him on the floor, but he’s an iffy ball handler and is miles behind Irving’s all-around offensive game. Kyrie has over a week to get healthy for the Finals, and this could actually be a blessing in disguise for the Warriors. Though his offensive prowess is a known commodity, I’m not sure who he’ll be able to guard on the other end of the court in this series. Teams often pick the lesser of two evils and put their best guard defender on Curry. For the Cavs that would be Iman Shumpert, but leaving Kyrie to guard the much bigger Klay Thompson would be a disaster.
The Cavs could put LeBron on Klay and leave Kyrie to fend for himself against Harrison Barnes or Draymond Green. This is a similar strategy to what the Rockets did against the Warriors, often putting Trevor Ariza on Curry and letting Jason Terry try to guard one of the Dubs’ forwards. Ask Kevin McHale how that worked out. Ultimately, I think the Cavs will have to leave Kyrie on Curry and use a lot of switching and double-teams to try and disrupt the flow of the Warriors’ efficient offense, but there’s no right answer here. This is another area to watch in terms of how Blatt can adapt strategically.
The Warriors, on the other hand, are tasked with the impossible challenge of stopping the best basketball player in the world. Although they’re very balanced collectively, it’s nearly impossible to find the right on-the-ball defender to put on The King, unless you have Kawhi Leonard on your roster. Draymond Green is an elite defender and figures to match up best with LeBron in terms of size, athleticism and physicality, but changing this assignment could have negative rippling effects throughout the defense. This would probably result in Harrison Barnes guarding Tristan Thompson, who would be able to use his size to his advantage and would crush Golden State on the offensive glass even more then he already will. The other option, and probably the best one, is to constantly throw different looks at LeBron with Barnes and Iguodala mainly checking him. James destroyed this matchup the last time these two teams met, scoring 42 points to the tune of 15-25 shooting. There is clearly no way to stop him, but Barnes and Iguodala are both solid defenders, and the Dubs’ best bet of slowing him down will be to defend him with a mixture of Barnes, Iguodala and Green (in small-ball lineups) and consistently throw him double-teams and new looks. Whoever plays better team defense will most likely win the series, and the team’s have actually been neck-and-neck in this year’s playoffs, so keep an eye on this one.
Verdict: Slight advantage Warriors
Conclusion
I had no idea when deciding on my five keys to the series that they would all go in the Warriors’ favor, but it makes sense when you look at what both teams have accomplished to get here. The Dubs were significantly more dominant throughout a much tougher schedule and are that much scarier because of it. Don’t be fooled, however. There are many other aspects I didn’t have time to touch on that can go in the Cavs favor, namely that they have one of the seven greatest players of all time carrying the load. Anything is certainly possible with LeBron at the helm, and he’s still very clearly in the midst of one of the best individual stretches of basketball we’ve ever seen, which dates back over five years. If J.R. Smith, Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov and Matthew Dellevadova can sustain they’re high levels of play and Kyrie comes back healthy, this team is poised to take down the Dubs with LeBron at the helm. That said, there’s a reason most are favoring the Warriors to win it all. They have the better, healthier and deeper roster, the better coaching staff, less liabilities on defense and more team chemistry, not to mention this year’s MVP Stephen Curry who has seemingly gotten better since the playoffs started. One thing is certain: LeBron still has several tricks up his sleeve. Will they be enough to take down the Splash Brothers and company? Or will this Warriors team actually go down as one of the greatest we’ve ever seen? The anticipation is killing me.
Final Verdict: Warriors in 6
Series Schedule
SCHEDULE
Game 1: Thursday, June 4, Cleveland at Golden State, 9 p.m. EST, ABC
Game 2: Sunday, June 7, Cleveland at Golden State, 8 p.m. EST, ABC
Game 3: Tuesday, June 9, Golden State at Cleveland, 9 p.m. EST, ABC
Game 4: Thursday, June 11, Golden State at Cleveland, 9 p.m. EST, ABC
*Game 5: Sunday, June 14, Cleveland at Golden State, 8 p.m. EST, ABC
*Game 6: Tuesday, June 16, Golden State at Cleveland, 9 p.m. EST, ABC
*Game 7: Friday, June 19, Cleveland at Golden State, 9 p.m. EST, ABC
*if necessary